[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1013 mb low is centered near 29N77W, about 175 nm east of
Melbourne, Florida. This low continues to produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas, N of 25N between
75W and 78W. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
conducive for additional development, but a tropical depression
could still form over the next day or so while the low drifts
westward towards the Florida Peninsula. Interests in Florida
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. This
system has a medium chance of development within 48 hours and the
next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
hurricanes.gov for more information.

Heavy rainfall is expected in Southern Central America,
particularly in Panama, Costa Rica and Southern Nicaragua. High
moisture content, persistent monsoon flow, and favorable
conditions aloft will continue to support scattered to numerous
strong convection capable of producing torrential rain through
early next week. The heaviest rainfall has been over central
Panama, E Costa Rica and S Nicaragua. Heavy rainfall in these
areas could cause significant flooding and mudslides.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from 19N southward, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 11N
between 18N to 20N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 67W from 22N southward,
moving W near 20 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across
Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage near the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 81W from 22N southward,
moving W near 20 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across
southern Cuba near the wave in addition to enhanced convection
near the monsoon trough, S of 11N between 79W to 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the Guinea-Bissau
coast near 11N16W to 09N27W to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues from
08N42W to 08N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
monsoon trough from 07N to 12N and E of 24W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is near the ITCZ from 05N to 09N
between 44W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends into the western Gulf from the Florida
coast near 27N82W to 27N87W. Scattered moderate convection is near
this trough from 24N to 28N and E of 86W. Another area of
scattered moderate convection is in the north-central Gulf, N of
25N between 87W to 91W. Isolated thunderstorms are also present in
the Bay of Campeche, S of 24N. A 1020 mb high pressure is analyzed
near 25N93W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the basin
with locally fresh winds likely near the northwest Yucatan coast.
Seas range 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure will meander and weaken
through Mon as a low pressure currently located about 175 nm east
of Daytona Beach, Florida meanders offshore of the Florida
Peninsula. This system is forecast to move across northern Florida
Sun night and Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information on
convection across the Caribbean Basin.

Numerous strong thunderstorms are along the northern coast of
Colombia, between 72W and 76W. Some of these storms could be
reaching adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection is noted
across the Greater Antilles which are moving into adjacent waters.
Generally gentle to moderate trades are noted across the Caribbean
with locally fresh winds N of Colombia. Seas range 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will weaken
through early next week as the high shifts slowly NE and a low
pressure system persists offshore of the Florida coast. This will
lead to a gradual diminishing in the strength of the tradewinds
across the basin through at least Wed. Look for scattered squalls
and thunderstorms across the NE Caribbean tonight associated with
a fast moving tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the low
east of Florida and the Tropical Waves section for information on
the wave off the African coast.

Aside from the convection associated with the 1013 mb low E of
Florida, an upper- level low E of the SE Bahamas at 22N69W is
generating scattered showers and thunderstorms from 19N to 30N
between 60W and 75W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the
SW N Atlantic with seas 4 to 7 ft. A trough is in the central
Atlantic from 30N47W to 22N44W. No convection is associated with
this feature. High pressure extends across this area anchored by a
1025 mb high near 32N52W. Light to gentle winds and seas to 5 ft
are noted.

For the forecast W of 45W, the low pressure system is located
about 175 nm east of Daytona Beach, Florida. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional
development, but a tropical depression could still form over the
next day or so while the low drifts westward towards the Florida
Peninsula. Scattered squalls and thunderstorms associated with a
fast moving tropical wave with axis along 68W will move across the
SE waters and north of the Greater Antilles through tonight.
Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms.

In the eastern Atlantic, tranquil conditions prevail under surface
ridging anchored by a 1028 mb high near 36N38W. Moderate to fresh
NE winds are noted with seas 5 to 7 ft.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net