[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

1016 mb low pressure centered well east of Jacksonville, Florida,
near 31N79W has a trough that extends S-SW to near Stuart,
Florida. This low continues to produce a large region of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, currently within 60 nm
east of Fort Pierce, Florida. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for additional development, and there is a
medium chance a tropical depression could form over the next
couple of days as the system meanders over the Gulf Stream, just
offshore of the southeastern United States.

Heavy Rainfall in Southern Central America: High moisture levels,
persistent strong trade wind flow, and favorable conditions aloft
will together support heavy rainfall for much of southern Central
America through early next week. The heaviest rain is expected
over the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica and southeast Nicaragua.
These rains could cause significant flooding and mudslides in some
areas. Currently, scattered moderate convection is noted along
the Caribbean coast from northern Costa Rica through western
Panama.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 56W, from 04N to 19N,
moving W 10 to 15 kt, approaching the Lesser Antilles. A few
showers and thunderstorms are noted from 17N to 20N between the
wave axis and the Leeward Islands. Patches of Saharan dust are
following the tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 70W, from the
Dominican Republic to northwest Venezuela, moving W at 15 to 20
kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 82W, north of 14N
through central Cuba. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 08N25W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 10N40W
to 12N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the eastern
Atlantic from 09N to 11N between 18W and 20W, and also over the
western Atlantic from 08N to 10N between 47W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1023 mb high pressure centered near 26N92W is the dominant features
over the Gulf. Fresh NE winds may be funneling off the west coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula, between the high pressure to the north
and lower pressure farther south. A few showers and thunderstorms
are also evident in this area, influenced by divergent flow aloft
on the southeast side of an upper low parked over 20N93W in the
Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are noted along
the Texas coast, west of the high pressure. Elsewhere, the
dominant high pressure is supporting light to gentle breezes and
mostly 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure will drift westward over the
weekend as low pressure meanders offshore of the Atlantic waters
of Florida, providing tranquil marine conditions across the Gulf
through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent ship observation confirmed strong NE winds off Colombia,
indicative of a large area of fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central and southwest Caribbean, with the strongest winds
off northeast Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 8
ft in this area. These enhanced winds are between high pressure
centered across the central Atlantic extends W-SW to central
Florida and low pressure over northern Colombia. The pressure
gradient south of the high pressure is also supporting fresh
winds just west of the Leeward Islands, south of Cabo Beata on the
south coast of Hispaniola, and over the northern part of the
Windward Passage. Elsewhere, generally moderate E winds and 3 to
5 ft seas are noted. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong east winds over the central
Caribbean are expected to continue across the central Caribbean
through early Sat before the ridge weakens west of 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
related to the area of low pressure off northeast Florida.

Elsewhere, an expansive 1027 mb high pressure near 34N43W is
supporting mainly dry weather conditions across the basin. Fresh
to locally strong E winds are probably active off the north coast
of Hispaniola, reaching westward to the approaches of the Windward
Passage, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Farther east, an area of fresh trade
winds is found south of 25N and west of 45W due to the pressure
gradient between the strong ridge and lower pressures over South
America. Seas within this region are 6-8 ft. Another area of fresh
to strong NE winds surrounds the Canary Islands east of 25W, with
winds reaching near gale force between the islands. Seas are 5-7
ft east of 25W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate flow prevails and
seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the current pattern will continue to support moderate
to fresh trades south of 25N through Sun. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be marginally conducive for additional development
of the low off northeast Florida, with a medium chance for it to
become a tropical cyclone over the weekend while it meanders just
offshore of the southeastern United States. Regardless of
development, showers and thunderstorms and moderate to fresh winds
can be expected over the weekend off the Florida coast as the
ridge remains in place.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net