[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jul 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support
gale force winds off the coast of the Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela through this morning. An ASCAT pass from 1300 UTC
confirmed gale force winds were within 90 nm off the coast of
Colombia. Winds will diminish this afternoon and return to gale
force overnight. Seas will be 8-13 ft with the strongest winds
across the south-central Caribbean. For more information, please
see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Heavy Rainfall in Southern Central America: Heavy rainfall is
expected over Costa Rica, western Panama and southeastern
Nicaragua through this weekend. The heaviest rain is expected
over Costa Rica Friday night into Saturday. These rains could
cause significant flooding and mudslides in some areas.
Currently, scattered moderate convection is noted along the
Caribbean coast from SE Nicaragua through western Panama.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W, south of
18N, moving W near 20 kt. Deep convection is not occurring right
now near the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 59W, south of
20N, moving W at near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 100 nm E of the wave from 10N to 12N.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis extends along 71W,
south of 23N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is not producing
any notable shower activity at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W and extends W to 09N27W. The ITCZ is from 09N28W to
10N41W, then continues W of a tropical wave, from 10N44W to
11N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 200 nm south of the
ITCZ from 31W to 41W. Similar convective activity is north of the
ITCZ from 11N to 13N between 34W and 36W. Another area of
scattered moderate convection is noted farther W from 09N to 12N
between 49W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high over the E Gulf of Mexico, near 27N85W, is
supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds. A scatterometer
satellite pass noted moderate to fresh winds in the SW Gulf due to
a weak surface trough. Seas are 2-4 ft in the SW Gulf and 1-2 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, ridging extending across the Gulf of Mexico
from the Bermuda high will continue to sink southward and provide
tranquil conditions across the basin through the weekend and early
next week. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will pulse
nightly NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Please see the Special Features section for more details.

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

Fresh to strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage, and the Gulf of Honduras, with
fresh trades in the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds
are found elsewhere. Seas are 7-9 ft in the central Caribbean and
5-7 ft elsewhere, except for 2-4 ft south of Cuba.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area combined
with low pressure N Colombia will continue to support fresh to
strong E winds over the central Caribbean through Fri, reaching
as far north as Hispaniola adjacent waters through this afternoon.
Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
through Fri morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin,
anchored by a 1026 mb subtropical high pressure near 34N41W. An
area of scattered moderate convection, enhanced by an upper level
low, is in the western Atlantic north of 28N between 70W to 78W.
Seas in the area as 3-5 ft. Fresh to strong east winds are noted
by scatterometer satellite data earlier from north of Hispaniola
to eastern Cuba to 22N. Another area of fresh to strong winds is
south 25N and west of 40W, with seas of 5-7 ft. Seas are mainly
5-7 ft across the basin. Farther east, strong to near gale force
winds are east of 20W, surrounding the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong E winds will pulse
in the afternoon and evening north of Hispaniola through Fri.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere south of 20N. A
low along a frontal boundary will sink southward during the
weekend off the NE Florida coast. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual development
over the weekend and into early next week while the system drifts
slowly offshore of coastal North and South Carolina. Regardless of
development, showers and thunderstorms with moderate to fresh
winds can be expected over the weekend.

$$
MORA/NEPAUL/DELGADO
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