[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The surface pressure gradient,
between the Atlantic Ocean ridge and the comparatively lower
surface pressure in Colombia, will help to support gale-force
winds off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela,
tonight, and again on Wednesday night. The sea heights are
forecast to range from 10 feet to 14 feet. The comparatively
fastest wind speeds will be in south central Caribbean Sea.
Please, read the High Seas Forecast, issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 07N to 11N
between 28W and 33w, and from 11N to 12N between 26W and 27W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 13N within 180 nm to
the east of the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is along 89W/90W, from 19N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. The tropical wave is moving through the
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and El Salvador, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 14N to 16N within 60 nm to 90 nm on
either side of the tropical wave, in parts of Guatemala and
Honduras, and in the southern sections of Belize.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 10N21W, 10N33W, and 08N47W. The ITCZ
is along 07N/08N between 50W and 58W in the coastal waters of
Guyana. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 150
nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 19W and 22W.
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 07N to 11N
between 28W and 33w, and from 11N to 12N between 26W and 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary is about 240 nm to the SE of the Texas Gulf
coast. The outflow boundary starts just off the coast of the
Florida Panhandle, to 28N90W and to 28N95W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 90 nm on either side of the outflow
boundary. An inland stationary front extends from the upper Texas
Gulf coast, through central Texas, beyond the Texas Big Bend.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong is in the Deep South of Texas, spreading into the
northeasternmost sections of Mexico.

A diurnal surface trough is in the western sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Warming cloud top temperatures, dissipating but remnant
rainshowers, and convective debris clouds are within 60 nm to 90
nm on either side of the surface trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge passes through the southern tip of Florida, toward
the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. The surface pressure pattern is
flat and weak.

A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High, westward along
26N, and toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will
continue to move southward through the forecast period. Expect
tranquil conditions in the Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the
week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will pulse on Wednesday
night, to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, through the end of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 89W/90W, from 19N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. The tropical wave is moving through the
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and El Salvador, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 14N to 16N within 60 nm to 90 nm on
either side of the tropical wave, in parts of Guatemala and
Honduras, and in the southern sections of Belize.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 74W in Colombia,
southwestward to the northern coast of Panama along 80W, beyond
southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side
of the monsoon trough.

The southwestern end of an upper level trough, from the Atlantic
Ocean near 27N68W, is reaching Cuba and Jamaica, and the parts of
Honduras and Nicaragua. Precipitation: broad upper level cyclonic
wind flow, and isolated moderate, cover the Caribbean Sea from 14N
northward from 70W westward.

Expect E winds from 20 to 25 knots, and sea heights from 4 feet
to 6 feet, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Windward Passage, from
20N to 21N between 70W and 72W.

The Bermuda High to the north of the area, combined with lower
pressure in N Colombia, will support fresh to strong NE to E winds
in the central Caribbean Sea through the end of the week. Expect
an increase in areal coverage of strong wind speeds, reaching
gale-force, near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela, tonight and on Wednesday night. Fresh to strong winds
will reach as far to the north as the Hispaniola adjacent waters.
Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early
evenings in the Windward Passage, through Friday. Fresh to strong
winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras on Wednesday
night and on Thursday night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 27N68W cyclonic circulation
center, to the Bahamas, to Cuba, and to Jamaica, and to Honduras
and Nicaragua. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean within 240 nm on either side of the trough.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area
of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the
northwest of the line that extends from Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida. This precipitation is on the northern side of a 500 mb-
to-700 mb ridge. A broad surface trough extends from central
Georgia to SE Louisiana.

A surface trough is along 49W/50W, from 26N to 31N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm on
either side of the trough.

A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 32N51W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward, between Africa and 80W, away from the 49W/50W surface
trough.

Expect E winds from 20 to 25 knots, and sea heights from 4 feet
to 6 feet, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Windward Passage, from
20N to 21N between 70W and 72W.

Fresh to strong E winds will pulse in the afternoons and evenings
to the north of Hispaniola for the next several days. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere to the south of 22N.
Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda High will move slowly,
southward to 27N by midweek, leading to quiescent conditions
across the remainder of the western Atlantic Ocean.

$$
mt/era
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