[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jul 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends it axis along 40W from 20N
southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave is moving
through an area of large-scale subsidence therefore, no deep
convective precipitation is associated with it.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 74W from
20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted south of 10N mainly over land.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 07N43W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N43W to 09N61W. Scattered showers prevail within
150 nm on either side of the monsoon trough mainly east of 30W,
and along the ITCZ between 46W-60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin extending along 27N.
Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle southeasterly winds
prevailing across most of the basin except over the southern
portion of the Bay of Campeche where moderate winds are noted.

For the forecast...as the ridge sinks southward during the next
few days, tranquil conditions will prevail across the Gulf of
Mexico. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over Gulf through
midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
wave moving across the basin.

Over the southwest Caribbean, the monsoon trough extends along
10N between 76W-82W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the trough mainly south of 10N. Scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong trades prevailing across the south central portion of
the basin south of 18N between 70W-82W, while gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere.

The Bermuda High north of the area combined with lower pressure
over N Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong easterly
winds over the south-central Caribbean through most of the week.
Expect an increase in speed and areal coverage from tonight
through Wed night while reaching as far west as the Hispaniola
adjacent waters. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the
afternoons and early evenings for the next several days in the
Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras by Thu. No tropical cyclone activity is
expected through midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
wave moving across the basin.

A surface ridge passes extends along 30N across the basin. Light
to gentle winds, and sea heights of 2 to 4 ft prevail from 25N
northward. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and sea heights
of 4 to 6 ft have been in the waters from 10N to 25N. Fresh winds
and sea heights from 4 to 6 ft prevail from 20N to 24N between
71W and 77W. Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea heights
ranging from 3 to 5 ft cover the remainder of the basin.

Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early
evenings to the north of Hispaniola for the next several days.
Surface ridging, associated with the Bermuda High, will move
slowly southward to 27N by midweek, leading toward quiescent
conditions across the remainder of the SW N Atlantic waters. No
tropical cyclone activity is expected through midweek.

$$
ERA
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