[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 20N southward and
moving W near 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted from 05N- 07N between 33W-38W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the Dominican Republic
southward across Venezuela and Colombia, and moving W near 20 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the
central Caribbean basin and Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough stretches from the Guinea Bissau coast near
12N16W to 07N37W. Then the ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 10N58W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident 05N-12N east of 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging across along the N Gulf coast support light to
gentle ESE to SE winds, and seas of 2 to 4 ft across the entire
Gulf. No significant convection is occurring over the Gulf of
Mexico this evening.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High extends a ridge westward along
30N and toward the north-central Gulf Coast. The ridge will sink
southward through Mon, providing tranquil conditions across the
Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh E
winds will begin pulsing Wed night to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient betwen the Bermuda High north of the
Caribbean and lower pressure over N South America is forcing fresh
to strong NE to E trades over the central Caribbean this evening.
Elsewhere the trades are moderate. Seas are 8-11 ft in the S
central Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the E Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW
Caribbean. In addition to convection associated with the tropical
wave over the central Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 11N in the SW Caribbean in connection with the
Pacific monsoon trough which reaches to N Colombia.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area combined
with lower pressure over N Colombia will support fresh to strong
NE to E winds over the central Caribbean through most of the week.
Expect an increase in areal coverage of strong wind speeds Mon
night through Wed night, reaching as far north as the Hispaniola
adjacent waters. Winds near the coast of NE Colombia and the Gulf
of Venezuela will pulse to strong to near gale force at times,
through Thu. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons
and early evenings in the Windward Passage tonight and again Wed
through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras Wed night and Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging across the Atlantic along 32N associated with the
Bermuda/Azores High is in place across the subtropical N Atlantic
this evening. A moderate pressure gradient from the Bermuda/Azores
High and lower pressure along the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing
moderate to fresh NE to E trades south of 22N. A pronounced
Saharan Air Layer with substantial amounts of dust is noted east
of 60W south of 22N.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong E winds will occur
in the afternoons and evenings north of Hispaniola for the next
several days. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere
south of 22N. Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda High
will slowly sink southward to 27N by midweek, leading toward
quiescent conditions across the remainder of the western Atlantic.


$$
Landsea/Chan
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