[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172251
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC SUN Jul 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 21N southward and
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This wave remains embedded in the Saharan
Air Layer, which dust and dry air suppressing all convection.

Another tropical wave is crossing the Lesser Antilles into the
eastern Caribbean this evening along 61W, from 20N southward. It
is moving W at 10 kt. This wave is at the western edge of the
Saharan Air Layer, thus no significant convection is occurring.

A third tropical wave over the western Caribbean is near 81W from
16N southward across Panama and into the eastern Pacific. This
wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring between this wave and Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends through the Gambia coast at 12N16W to
06N37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 04N to 10N between the African coast and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough that is moving W offshore the western Yucatan
Peninsula inducing scattered moderate to locally strong convection
in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Locally strong winds and seas at
4 to 6 ft are possible in these thunderstorms.

Otherwise, a surface ridge extending southwestward from the
Bermuda High across N Florida and the N Gulf is supporting mainly
gentle ESE to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High extends a ridge southwestward
across the SE CONUS. As the ridge sinks southward during the next
few days, tranquil conditions will prevail across the Gulf of
Mexico. No tropical cyclone activity is expected over Gulf through
at least Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section for information on tropical waves in
the far southwestern and far eastern portions of the basin.
Otherwise, dry conditions prevail.

Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the
Colombian low continues to create fresh to strong trades and seas
of 8 to 11 ft across the central and S central Caribbean. Gentle
to moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen in the NW
Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area and lower
pressure over N Colombia will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds over the south-central Caribbean through most of the week.
Expect an increase in speed and areal coverage from Mon night
through Wed night while reaching as far west as the Hispaniola
adjacent waters. Elsewhere, NE trades will become fresh to strong
tonight and Sun night in the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong
winds are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Thu
night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected through at least
Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring in association with the through
over and just north of the NW Bahamas. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for details on additional
convection along the monsoon trough.

The persistent surface ridge across the central Atlantic is
sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft N of 24N.
Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
present from 12N to 24N. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3
to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh to strong E winds will occur
afternoons and early evenings north of Hispaniola for the next
several days. Ridging associated with a weak Bermuda High will
slowly sink southward to 27N by Wed, leading toward quiescent
conditions across the remainder of the SW N Atlantic waters. No
tropical cyclone activity is expected in the area through at least
Thu.

$$
KONARIK
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