[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 23N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 05N to 10N between Africa and
30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 21N
southward, moving west about 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 02N
to 12N between 35W and 54W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the
west of the tropical wave from 11N to 13N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from Cuba southward,
is moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N to Cuba,
within 250 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 400
nm to the west of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 14N20W, and to 07N30W. The ITCZ continues from
07N30W, to 06N44W, and to 06N55W in the coastal waters of
Suriname. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 05N to 10N between Africa and 30W, and from 02N to 12N
between 35W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SE U.S.A. surface ridge extends along the northern coast of
the Gulf of Mexico.

Gentle to moderate E-SE wind flow prevails in most of the basin,
with sea heights in the range of 2 to 4 feet.

A surface trough has developed along the western coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on
either side of the trough.

An upper level trough is in the east central Gulf of Mexico.
Isolated moderate rainshowers spans much of the Gulf waters.

Surface ridging extending, from the SE CONUS, will remain nearly
stationary through the middle of the next week. The surface
ridge will support the continuation of gentle to moderate E to
SE winds
across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds
will pulse at night in the Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters
through the forecast period, as a diurnal surface trough moves
into the Bay of Campeche before dissipating. Fresh to locally
strong winds are possible in this region tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda High,
and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in
Colombia, is helping to promote strong NE trades just to the
north of
Colombia. Fresh and weaker trade winds are prevailing elsewhere.
Sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet are in the central
and SW Caribbean Sea, and 3-5 feet heights are elsewhere.

High pressure in the Georgia and South Carolina offshore waters
will continue to support moderate to fresh winds in the central
and eastern Caribbean Sea, and fresh to strong winds in
the south central Caribbean Sea through Friday. These winds will
expand in areal coverage during this weekend through Tuesday
night, as a tropical wave enters the eastern Caribbean Sea late
on Saturday, and the tropical wave moves into the central
Caribbean Sea late on Sunday. Fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse at night in the Windward Passage through Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Expansive high pressure is dominating the wind flow over most of
the Atlantic basin. Fresh trades are occurring off the N coast of
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. In the far eastern
Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds are impacting waters in the
vicinity of the Canary Islands due to the pressure gradient
between the high pressure to the west and lower pressure over
Africa. Elsewhere, generally moderate trades prevail S of 23N,
with gentle winds to the north. Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the
waters.

A surface trough is along 31N68W 26N70W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N to 30N between
71W and 73W.

Surface high pressure in the Georgia and South Carolina offshore
waters will maintain moderate to fresh E winds across the area
south of 26N. The passage of a tropical wave across the E
Caribbean Sea supports fresh winds in the Puerto Rico adjacent
waters. These winds will continue through the middle of the next
week, as another tropical wave enters the Caribbean Sea late on
Sunday. Fresh to strong winds will pulse to the north of
Hispaniola through the forecast period

$$
mt
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