[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic from 04N to 16N with axis along
18W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N-12N between 12W-20W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 03N to
16N with axis along 36W, moving W at around 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12W between 30W-39W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles extending from 05N to
16N with axis near 59W, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 54W and 61W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Bay of Campeche and SE Mexico
along 94W extending into the eastern Pacific region. It is moving
W at around 10 to 15 kt. The wave is generating scattered
moderate convection over the Bay of Campeche. This tropical wave
could help to develop a tropical cyclone on the eastern Pacific
region within the next five days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from Guinea-Bissau
near 11N16W to 07N35W. The ITCZ continues from 07N38W to 08N57W.
For information about convection, see the tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge over the SE of United States extends into the Gulf waters.
Gentle to moderate E-SE flow prevails across most of the basin
with seas in the 2-4 ft range. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are over the Bay on Campeche in association with the
above mentioned tropical wave. Similar convective activity is
also noted over the SE gulf close to the Florida Keys.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail through the
forecast period and will support mainly gentle to moderate E to SE
winds, except over the Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters where
moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse at night associated with a
surface trough moving to the Bay of Campeche. Heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the SW Gulf associated with a tropical
wave will dissipate early this afternoon as the wave moves W of
the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across
Hispaniola into the south-central Caribbean. Dry, subsident
northerly flow aloft is suppressing showers and thunderstorms
across much of the central and western Caribbean Sea. Shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow supports scattered
showers over Jamaica adjacent waters.

High pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean with seas to 9 ft.
These winds will prevail through Fri and then increase in areal
coverage, reaching Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night through
Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse at night in
the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information
about these features.

Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the Atlantic
forecast waters. Moderate easterly winds are noted over the Bahamas
as well as just N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the
Windward Passage. Fresh to strong N-NE winds remain between the
Canary Islands due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas of
3-6 ft dominate the waters west of 30W while seas of 6-9 ft are
near the fresh to strong winds off the coast of Africa.

A large upper-level trough extends from 31N57W to Hispaniola. The
surface reflection of this upper level trough is analyzed as a
trough that extends from 29N64W to 22N67W. A few showers are near
the trough axis N of 29N between 67W and 71W.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, a tropical wave will
enter the E Caribbean today and will support fresh winds over
Puerto Rico adjacent waters and fresh to strong winds N of
Hispaniola Sat through Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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