[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 38W from 12N
southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along 08N between 37W-40W where the wave meets the monsoon trough.

Another Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from
10N southward and moving W near 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along 08N where the wave meets the ITCZ.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 74W and
south of 22N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Aided by upper-level
divergent winds, scattered showers prevail across the northern
portion of the wave affecting the Windward Passage, Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W
to 08N41W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N41W to 07N50W. In
addition to the convection listed in the Tropical Wave section
above, scattered moderate convection is evident near the monsoon
trough from 07N to 12N between 15W and 20W. Scattered showers is
noted south of 10N between 20W-30W and within 60 nm of the
boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from northern Florida
across the northern Gulf to South Texas. Latest scatterometer
pass depicts gentle to moderate E to SE winds over most of the
basin. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft. A few showers and thunderstorms
are noted over the northwestern Gulf, the Straits of Florida, and
over the warmer Loop Current of the south-central Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridge just north of the area will maintain
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across much
of the Gulf through Fri. A surface trough will develop each day
over the Yucatan and shift westward into the SW Gulf. This will
support fresh to occasionally strong winds off the northwest
Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight
hours through mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

Scatterometer data depicts fresh trades across most of the
eastern and central Caribbean, with locally strong winds in the
south-central Caribbean offshore of Colombia. Maximum seas are
estimated to be 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, mainly off
the coast of Colombia, and 6 to 8 ft over the eastern Caribbean
where fresh tradewinds follow the tropical wave moving across the
basin. Moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over
the northwest Caribbean. In addition to the convection mentioned
in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate convection is
ongoing off Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua west of 80W.

For the forecast, the tropical wave in the central Caribbean
will move west of the basin the middle of the week. High pressure
centered north of the region will support strong tradewinds and
building seas into Wed, including strong nocturnal NE winds across
the Windward Passage Tue night into Wed. Winds and seas will
diminish through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections
above for information on convection across the basin.

A surface ridge extends from the central Atlantic across Bermuda
to the central Florida coast. This pattern is supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE trade winds north of 25N west of 35W with 3 to 5
ft seas over open waters. Fresh trades are noted south of 25N
west of 35W to 60W with 6 to 9 ft seas. Fresh to locally strong
E winds are south of 25N and west of 60W over waters surrounding
the Greater Antilles with 4 to 6 ft seas. Divergence aloft
associated with an upper low now centered over the west Atlantic is
supporting scattered moderate convection mainly west of 75W. To
the east, another upper level low is centered near 28N53W and it
is reflected at the surface as a trough along 50W. Scattered
showers are noted along and west of the trough north of 25N
between 50W and 59W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will lift north to along 32N
through Tue. Strong winds will continue to pulse off Hispaniola
and into the Windward Passage Tue night into Wed. Winds and seas
will diminish across the region through Fri as the area of high
pressure weakens.

$$
ERA
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