[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 12N
southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Moderate convection is from
03N to 09N between the African coast and 26W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W from 09N southward and
moving W near 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this
wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 61W from 21N southward, just W o
the Lesser Antilles and moving W near 15 kt. Aided by divergent
upper-level winds aloft, scattered showers are present from
Jamaica and central Hispaniola southward to northern Columbia and
Venezuela.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from 14N southward to
eastern Panama, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is flaring up over the SW Caribbean
basin.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 03N28W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 03N28W to
03N34W then from 03N40W to near the French Guiana-Brazil border.
There is no significant convection other than the ones mentioned
in the Tropical Wave section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward across the N Gulf from a 1020 mb
high pressure centering near 28N84W to S Texas. Divergent upper-
level winds are coupling with convergent SE winds along the
surface ridge to trigger scattered convection over the NW corner
of the Gulf. Otherwise, light to gentle SE to S winds and seas of
2 to 4 ft prevail across the N Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to ESE
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present over the S Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate SE winds persist over the western Gulf
between a ridge extending from the western Atlantic to the north
central Gulf and lower pressure over northern Mexico. The ridge
will lift north of the area through Mon. This will support gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist through mid
week. The exception will be fresh to occasionally strong winds off
the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche
during overnight hours through mid week, related to the surface
trough that forms during the late afternoon each day.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for information on
convection.

Moderate to fresh trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted
across the central Caribbean, driven by the pressure gradient
between the subtropical high north of the area and lower pressure
over Colombia and W Venezuela. In the E Caribbean, Mainly moderate
trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong Atlantic high pressure ridge will begin
to drift northward tonight and Sun and allow strong to near gale
force tradewinds across the south-central Caribbean to weaken
through Mon. Strong trades in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish
Sun, but fresh trades will pulse nightly through the middle of
next week. A large tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles
today will bring a surge in wind and waves behind it as it moves
across the E Carib tonight through late Sun, and across the
central Carib Mon through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the section above for information the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper-level low ESE of Bermuda at 31N53W is triggering
scattered moderate convection from 24N to 29N between 49W and
56W. Otherwise, a subtropical high centered north of the area
continues to dominate the tropical Atlantic.

Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are found near the
ridge axis N of 28N between 43W and the E Florida coast. Moderate
to fresh ENE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen between
10N and 28N from 27W to the Bahamas and Less Antilles. Light to
gentle NE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, a surface ridge from Bermuda to
central Florida will lift north through Mon and support moderate
to fresh E winds south of the ridge axis, with winds pulsing to
fresh to strong along the north coast of Hispaniola mainly during
the evenings into mid week. A large tropical wave moving into the
eastern Caribbean will bring a surge in wind and waves to the
Atlantic waters north of the Leeward Islands tonight through Mon,
then through the southern Bahamas late Mon and Tue.

$$

Chan
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