[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090909
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 39.4N 74.3W at 09/0900 UTC
near Atlantic City New Jersey moving NE at 27 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. On the forecast track, Elsa will
pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states early this morning,
and move near or over the northeastern United States through late
today and into tonight. The system should move over Atlantic
Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Across northern New Jersey,
Long Island, and southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through
Friday, which could result in considerable flash and urban
flooding. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and the High
Seas Forecast issued by the NWS Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for more details.
For marine information within 60 nm of the coast, please see
products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at
www.weather.gov.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale force winds over the south-
central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will continue morning
due to the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the
area and lower pressure over northern Colombia. The winds will
diminish below gale force later this morning, but seas up to 13 ft
will persist off Colombia. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 28W/29W south of 11N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with a large amplitude has its
axis near 42W south of 25N, moving quickly west at 15 to 20 kt.
No convection is noted at this time.

A tropical wave near 63W south of 13N in the eastern Caribbean,
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is evident
near this tropical wave.

A tropical wave is in the far southwest Caribbean along 82W, south
of 13N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the coast of
Panama and Costa Rica, due in part to the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 09N20W to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to
03N35W to 04N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 08N between 15W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from western Atlantic across central
Florida to the north-central Gulf. A 0300 UTC scatterometer pass
indicated fresh to strong SE winds off the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula between the surface ridge and a trough moving
off Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche. The same scatterometer pass
indicated fresh SE winds off the Texas coast, between the surface
ridge and 1009 mb low pressure over South Texas. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere, except light breezes are noted
along the coast of Florida. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are evident off South Texas and along the central
Tamaulipas coast of Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the western
Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh SE winds will persist over the northwest
Gulf between the high pressure and lower pressure over Texas
through at least late Sat. Similarly, a trough will form off
northwest Yucatan Peninsula each evening, supporting fresh or
even strong winds during overnight hours through late Tue.
Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist
over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features above for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast
of Colombia.

A scatterometer pass from around 03 UTC confirmed winds to minimal
gale force off the coast of Santa Marta, Colombia. The
scatterometer pass and buoy observations also indicated strong to
near gale force winds over much of the south-central Caribbean.
Seas are estimated to be as high as 13 ft in the area of gale
force winds, based on recent buoy and altimeter satellite data.
Seas in excess of 8 ft are also evident as far east as 65W, due to
the long duration and fetch of fresh to strong trade winds across
the eastern Caribbean. Moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
noted over the northwest Caribbean, except slightly higher along
the central and western coast of Honduras. There are scattered
showers and thunderstorms off Panama and Costa Rica due to trade
winds convergence, local drainage flow and perhaps aided by a
tropical wave move through that area. No significant shower or
thunderstorms activity is noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area
combined with the Colombian low will enhance strong to gale force
winds north of Colombia through this morning. Fresh to strong
trades will continue in the south- central Caribbean and the Gulf
of Honduras through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at
night in the Gulf of Honduras through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W, a surface ridge extends from near Bermuda to central
Florida. Recent scatterometer satellite data and buoy
observations show moderate to fresh E winds south of the ridge
axis through the southern Bahamas. Light to gentle breezes persist
along the ridge axis, through the northern Bahamas. The
scatterometer data also shows moderate SW winds off northeast
Florida, west of the ridge axis. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 25N
and 4 to 6 ft farther south. A few showers and thunderstorms are
active over the Gulf Stream north of Grand Bahama Island. For the
forecast, the surface ridge extending from Bermuda to central
Florida will lift north of the area by early next week. This will
support moderate to fresh E winds south of the ridge axis, with
winds pulsing to fresh to strong along the north coast of
Hispaniola mainly during the evening hours, reaching westward
into the approaches to the Windward Passage.

Elsewhere farther east, 1032 mb high pressure is centered west of
the Azores near 36N36W. West of 35W, this supporting gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 25N, and
moderate to fresh trades south of 25N with 5 to 7 ft seas. East of
35W, fresh to strong NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted north
of 15N, and gentle to moderate flow and 5 to 7 ft are noted south
of 15N.

$$
Christensen
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