[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 38.3N 75.7W at 09/0600 UTC
or 40 nm SW of Lewes, Delaware moving NE at 22 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States
into New England, 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up
to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in
limited flash and urban flooding for the northern Mid- Atlantic
States and considerable flash and urban flooding in New England.
Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. On the forecast
track, Elsa will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states
tonight and move near or over the northeastern United States on
Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic
Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and the High
Seas Forecast issued by the NWS Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for more details.
For marine information within 60 nm of the coast, please see
products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at
www.weather.gov.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale force winds over the south-
central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will continue due to
the pressure gradient bewteen high pressure north of the area and
lower pressure over northern Colombia. Gales will pulse tonight
through early Fri with seas building to 9 to 14 ft. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W south of
11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with a large amplitude has its
axis near 40W south of 25N, moving quickly W at 20 kt. No
convection is noted at this time.

A tropical wave has its axis near the Windward Islands along 62W
south of 12N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted over E Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave that has its axis near 81W south of
13N across eastern Panama is moving quickly W at 20 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 80 nm of the
coast of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
12N16W to 06N31W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 03N38W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough
from 04N to 08N between 15W and 21W. Scattered showers are along
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface low over SE Texas is connected to a surface trough that
extends over NE Mexico. Earlier convection in the NW Gulf has
collapsed. A small area of moderate convection is noted from 22N-
23N within 50 nm of the coast of Mexico. Heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will be possible along the Texas Gulf coast over the next
few days. See products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office for additional information. A diurnal
surface trough is along the W Yucatan Peninsula. No convection is
noted with this trough at this time. Fresh to locally strong SE
winds are noted in the NW Gulf, with seas of 5-7 ft. Gentle flow
exists around a ridge axis that extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to
27N86W in the NE Gulf with seas less than 3 ft. Fresh E winds
extend from the N Yucatan Peninsula to 24N between 88W and 91W.
Gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail elsewhere throughout the
basin, with seas of 4-7 ft west of 87W and 3-5 ft east of 87W.

For the forecast, high pressure from the Atlantic will build
westward across the area through the next few days, with
relatively quiet conditions expected. The Yucatan Peninsula trough
will shift westward to the southwest Gulf during the mornings
through the weekend followed by fresh to strong southeast winds.
Broad low pressure over South Texas will support scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms across the northwest Gulf overnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features above for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast
of Colombia.

Elsewhere in the central Caribbean, trades diminish to strong
north of the warning area with 7-10 ft seas. Fresh trades prevail
in the remainder of the Caribbean, with seas of 5-8 ft. A weak
surface trough is analyzed in the NE Caribbean based on
surface observations, though interestingly the scatterometer pass
did not detect any wind shift.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area
combined with the Colombian low will enhance strong to gale force
winds north of Colombia through early Friday. Fresh to strong
trades will continue in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf
of Honduras through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at
night in the Gulf of Honduras through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic remains under the influence of a strong
subtropical high north of the area. Moderate to locally fresh
trades prevail along the southern extent of the ridge, diminishing
to gentle over the W Atlantic. In the far eastern Atlantic, strong
NE winds are noted north of 18N east of 20W, with near-gales
between the Canary Islands and in Meteo-France's Agadir zone. Seas
are 8-10 ft in this area of strong winds, 4-6 ft in the W
Atlantic, and 5-7 ft in the remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will build westward
across the area through Sun night. East winds will pulse to fresh
to strong speeds at night between the southeastern Bahamas and
Hispaniola through the period.

$$
Mahoney
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