[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KOKX 082144
HLSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-090545-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 35
National Weather Service New York NY  AL052021
544 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

**TROPICAL STORM ELSA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Northeast Suffolk,
      Northern New London, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk,
      Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven,
      Southern New London, and Southwest Suffolk

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 390 miles southwest of New York City NY or about 480
      miles southwest of Montauk Point NY
    - 36.3N 78.3W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 40 degrees at 21 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa will move toward the area this evening passing
near or over the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight, and near or over
eastern Long Island and southeast New England on Friday morning.

The main threats from Elsa are heavy rain capable of producing flash
flooding, tropical storm force winds especially along the south
shore of Long Island and across southeast Connecticut, and
associated marine and coastal hazards, including very rough seas and
dangerous rip currents.

A widespread rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts
is forecast from this evening into Friday. The highest amounts are
forecast to be from NYC to the north and west. Dangerous marine
conditions should also develop on the ocean waters south of Long
Island, as well as on Long Island Sound, and the south shore and
eastern bays of Long Island. Tropical storm force winds will be most
likely in those areas, near the south shores of Long Island and
southeast Connecticut, and in some higher elevations away from the
coastline. Dangerous rip currents will likely occur along the ocean
beaches of Long Island.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey,
and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple
      places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
      valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
      mudslides.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut.
Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Tornadoes may be possible, with limited impacts across Southeast New
York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential
impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Southeast
New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut, with a
reasonable worst case scenario of up to 1 foot above ground level.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Dangerous rip currents are expected at Atlantic ocean beaches through Friday,
as well as high surf and beach erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track, since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes can extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be completed
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

There is threat of tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to
receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly in case a
tornado is spotted or a Tornado Warning is issued.

Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown!

Closely monitor https://weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio, and local
news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible
changes to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see
http://getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see
http://redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New York NY around 11 PM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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