[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KOKX 080933
HLSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-081745-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 33
National Weather Service New York NY  AL052021
533 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

**TROPICAL STORM ELSA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Northeast Suffolk, Northern New London, Northwest
      Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Southern Middlesex, Southern
      Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London, and Southwest
      Suffolk

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Northeast Suffolk,
      Northern New London, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk,
      Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven,
      Southern New London, and Southwest Suffolk

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 650 miles southwest of New York City NY or about 740
      miles southwest of Montauk Point NY
    - 33.4N 81.3W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 35 degrees at 18 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa will move toward the area today maintaining
strength as a tropical storm. The storm will then pass near or over
the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight, and near or over Long Island and
southeast New England on Friday morning.

The main threats from Elsa are heavy rain capable of producing flash
flooding, tropical storm force winds especially along the south shore
of Long Island and across southeast Connecticut, and associated marine
and coastal hazards, including very rough seas and dangerous rip
currents.

A widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts is
forecast from this afternoon into Friday. The highest amounts are
forecast to be from NYC to the north and west. Dangerous marine
conditions should also develop on the ocean waters south of Long
Island, as well as on Long Island Sound, and the south shore and
eastern bays of Long Island. Tropical storm force winds will be most
likely in those areas, near the south shores of Long Island and
southeast Connecticut, and in some higher elevations away from the
coastline. Dangerous rip currents will likely occur along the ocean
beaches of Long Island.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut.
Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Southeast
New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut, with a
reasonable worst case scenario of up to 1 foot above ground level.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut.

Potential impacts include:
    - Heavy rain may cause flash flooding and may prompt some water
      rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and may overspill their banks in a few places,
      especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Some road closures
      are possible.


* TORNADOES:
Tornadoes may be possible, with limited impacts across Southeast New
York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential
impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
There is potential for dangerous rip currents Thursday and Friday,
as well as high surf and beach erosion on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
---------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track, since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes can extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be completed
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

Closely monitor https://weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio, and local
news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible
changes to the forecast.

There is threat of tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to
receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly in case a
tornado is spotted or a Tornado Warning is issued.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see
http://getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see
http://redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New York NY around 6PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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