[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 08/0600 UTC, Tropical Storm Elsa is located inland over SE
Georgia near 32.7N 82.0W, or 91 nm NNW of Brunswick, GA. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Elsa is moving NNE
at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. On the
forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia this morning, over
South Carolina and North Carolina later today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday. Slow weakening is expected
through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some re-strengthening
is possible on Friday while the system moves close to the
northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone late Friday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and the High
Seas Forecast issued by the NWS Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for more details.
For marine information within 60 nm of the coast, please see
products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at
www.weather.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 22W from 10N southward, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave
axis from 04N-10N between 22W-28W.

A second tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 19N southward,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 02N-07N
between 31W-39W.

A third tropical wave is along 55W south of 14N, moving west at
15-20 kt. Scattered showers are from 08N-10N between 55W-57W.

A tropical wave over the east central Caribbean is along 68W
south of 13N, moving west at about 10-15 kt. No convection is
noted over the Caribbean at this time. Scattered moderate
convection is noted over central Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 09N21W to 08N32W. A segment of the ITCZ is analyzed from
05N40W to 04N48W. Scattered showers are near the monsoon trough
from 08N to 16N east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface low and upper level trough over SE Texas support
scattered moderate convection over the NW Gulf, from 23N to 29N
west of 93W. Surface observations and scatterometer data depict
moderate to fresh SE winds in this area of convection. A diurnal
surface trough is analyzed along the W Yucatan Peninsula, from
23N88W to 19N91W. Scattered moderate convection is collapsing and
moving inland over the state of Tabasco. Gentle to moderate SE
winds prevail across most of the Gulf, except in the northeast
section of the basin where gentle W winds persist in the wake of
Tropical Storm Elsa. Seas are 3-6 ft throughout the Gulf.

For the forecast: Tropical Storm Elsa will continue to pull away
from the area through Thu. High pressure from the Atlantic will
build westward across the area through the next few days, with
relatively quiet conditions expected. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf are expected to
continue through late on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Near-gale force E winds were observed by the scatterometer in the
Gulf fo Venezuela. Strong trades continue in the south central
Caribbean within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, with 7-11 ft
seas. Strong trades are also ocurring in the Gulf of Honduras with
6-8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the remainder
of the Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the E Caribbean, 6-9 ft in
the north central Caribbean and SW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the NW
Caribbean and Windward Passage.

For the forecast: Widespread strong trades will continue in the south-
central Caribbean into Fri night. These winds may reach near
gale force Thu through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the Atlantic forecast waters.
Of note, during the summer, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean
Sea are dominated by the Bermuda-Azores high, when it is at its
westernmost position. Circulation around the high results in
southerly winds over the Gulf of Mexico and easterly winds over
the Caribbean Sea. These winds bring warm, moist air from the
ocean over land. For us in South Florida, this pattern brings with
it the rainy season and high dewpoints. Today, the 0000 UTC
surface analysis shows a 1030 mb Azores high located near 36N38W
with the associated ridge reaching the Bahamas and SE Florida.

Strong trades were detected within 40 nm of the north coast of
Hispaniola, with 5-7 ft seas. Strong to near-gale force N winds
and 6-8 ft seas are occurring in Meteo-France's Agadir zone,
within 90 nm of the coast of Morocco. Throughout the remainder of
the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate trades prevail, and veer
to SE west of 70W. An area of fresh trades is noted in Atlantic
waters from 10N to 22N east of 52W. Seas are 3-6 ft west of 70W,
and 5-7 ft over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W: Fresh southeast winds will continue off
the northern Florida coast through tonight as Tropical Storm Elsa,
currently inland over southeastern Georgia, tracks northeastward
across the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic U.S. through late Thu, at
which point these winds will diminish. High pressure will then
build westward across the area through the Sun night. East winds
will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night between the
southeastern Bahamas and the Dominican Republic through the
period.

$$
Mahoney
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