[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 31
National Weather Service New York NY  AL052021
551 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

**TROPICAL STORM ELSA EXPECTED TO IMPACT LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Northeast Suffolk,
      Northern New London, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk,
      Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven,
      Southern New London, and Southwest Suffolk

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northeast Suffolk,
      Northern New London, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk,
      Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven,
      Southern New London, and Southwest Suffolk

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 960 miles southwest of Montauk Point NY
    - 30.8N 83.4W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, and through the
Carolinas on Thursday, while weakening to a tropical depression. The
storm will then reintensify to tropical storm strength as it passes
near or over the Mid Atlantic coast late Thursday night, and near or
over Long Island and southeast New England on Friday.

The main threats from Elsa are heavy rain capable of producing flash
flooding, tropical storm force winds especially along the south shore
of Long Island and across southeast Connecticut, and associated marine
and coastal hazards, including very rough seas and dangerous rip
currents.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts is forecast from
Thursday afternoon into Friday. Dangerous marine conditions should
also develop on the ocean waters south of Long Island, as well as on
Long Island Sound, and the south shore and eastern bays of Long
Island. Tropical storm force winds will be most likely in those areas,
near the south shores of Long Island and southeast Connecticut, and
in some higher elevations away from the coastline. Dangerous rip
currents will likely occur along the ocean beaches of Long Island.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern
Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and may overspill their banks in a few places,
      especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Potential impacts in these
areas include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and
Southern Connecticut, little to no impact is anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
There is potential for dangerous rip currents Thursday and Friday,
as well as high surf and beach erosion on Friday.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Southeast
New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern
Connecticut.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut.
Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track, since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes can extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be completed
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

Closely monitor https://weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio, and local
news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible
changes to the forecast.

There is threat of tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to
receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly in case a
tornado is spotted or a Tornado Warning is issued.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see
http://getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see
http://redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New York NY around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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