[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 071302
HLSTAE
FLZ018-019-028-029-034-118-127-128-134-GAZ159>161-072115-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL052021
902 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**ELSA APPROACHING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Brooks, Inland Dixie,
      Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Lafayette, Lanier, Lowndes,
      and Madison
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Jefferson and Coastal Wakulla

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 100 miles south-southeast of Tallahassee or about 30
      miles south-southwest of Steinhatchee River
    - 29.2N 83.6W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Elsa is approaching the Nature coast this morning and will make
landfall in the next few hours in that area.

Watches and Warnings remain the same for this advisory. Strong tropical
storm force winds will be possible across the SE Big Bend into far
South-Central GA, with some gusts to hurricane force possible along the
Dixie County coast. Storm surge of 3 to 5 feet will be possible for
Apalachee Bay. Further west, surge of 2 to 4 feet will be possible for
Central Apalachee Bay, mainly due to breezy easterly winds on the north side
of Elsa. Flooding rains will be possible across the area, with 2 to
4 inches of rainfall with isolated pockets of 5 to 6 inches possible
across the SE Big Bend. Saturated soils from rainfall the past few days
will make it easier for the forecast rainfall with Elsa to create flooding
issues. A Flood Watch remains in effect for most of the eastern Big Bend
and South-Central Georgia to account for this threat. Additionally, a
few tornadoes will be possible across the Southeast Big Bend.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Southeast Big Bend. Remain well sheltered from life-threatening
wind having possible extensive impacts. If realized, these impacts
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
across the Florida Big Bend and South-Central GA. Remain well
sheltered from dangerous wind having possible limited to significant
impacts.

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
coastal Dixie County. Remain well away from life-threatening surge
having possible significant impacts. If realized, these impacts
include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Potential impacts from the main surge event are also now unfolding
across the remainder of Apalachee Bay. Remain well away from locally
hazardous surge having possible limited impacts.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the Southeast Big Bend. Remain well guarded against dangerous flood
waters having possible significant impacts. If realized, these
impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the the remainder of the Florida Big Bend and South-Central GA. Remain
well guarded against locally hazardous flood waters having possible limited
impacts.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the SE
Big Bend. Remain well braced against a tornado event having possible
limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear to return.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a
battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 1130 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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