[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 07/0600 UTC, Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 27.9N 83.5W
or 52 nm W of Tampa, Florida moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt
with higher gusts. Peak seas are 18 ft. Satellite imagery depicts
numerous moderate scattered strong convection from 26N- 30N
between 80-85W. Scattered moderate convection is present elsewhere
from 25N-27N between 80W-82W. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast to make
landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday
morning and then move across the southeastern United States
through Thursday.

Storm surge of 1-2 ft is probable from the Indian Pass to the
Ochlockonee River, 2-4 ft from the Ochlockonee River to the Aucilla
river, 3-5 ft from the Aucilla River to Engelwood (including
Tampa Bay), 2-4 ft from Englewood to Bonita Beach, and 1-3 ft
from Bonita Beach to Flamingo. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with
locally higher amounts are anticipated along the W Florida
peninsula, and 2 to 4 inches for the rest of Florida. Rainfall may
result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor
to isolated moderate river flooding. Stay informed with your
local NWS Weather Forecast Office and listen to possible
instructions from you local emergency management office.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, Forecast/ Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
For marine information within 60 nm of the coast, please see
products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at
www.weather.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 29W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N to 09N between 25W and 33W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 12N southward and
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 04N to 09N
between 47W and 54W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis across W Venezuela
along 63W and south of 12N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered
showers are noted south of 13N between 54W-65W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W
to 09N30W to 05N43W. A very small segment of the ITCZ extends from
02N47W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the
convection described in the tropical waves section above,
scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough
from 03N to 12N east of 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Elsa is impacting the E Gulf and W Florida. See
the Special Features section above for details.

As of 07/0300 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed in the NW Gulf
from 28N95W to 25N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
25N to 28N between 94W and 96W. The latest scatterometer data
shows moderate S-SE winds near this trough. An upper level trough
over NE Mexico is supporting an area of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection within 90 nm of the coast from
Tampico, Mexico to the Texas/Mexico border. Gentle to moderate
E-SE winds prevail over the central and western Gulf, with 3-5 ft
seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to weaken to be
near 29.0N 83.1W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 60 kt
gusts 75 kt and move inland near 31.4N 82.5W Wed evening while
continuing to weaken. Hazardous marine conditions will continue
over most of the NE Gulf through Wed. In the wake of Elsa,
Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the area through
the next few days. Swells from Elsa are likely to spread
throughout the basin through Sat. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue across the north-central Gulf through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer data shows near-gale force E winds in
the south-central Caribbean within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 72W and 75W. Strong E winds extend to 14N between 71W and
77W. Fresh E winds encompass the remainder of the central
Caribbean, with seas of 6-9 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to
moderate trades prevail with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong trade winds will
begin to increase in the south-central Caribbean beginning Wed
night and continue through late Fri. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers associated with the distant outer bands of
Tropical Storm Elsa are impacting the Bahamas. Strong to near-
gale force winds are occurring between the Canary Islands. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb
subtropical high centered near 34N42W. This supports mainly
moderate trades across the basin, veering to SE in the W Atlantic.
Seas are 4-6 ft west of 55W, and 5-8 ft east of 55W in open
waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh southeast winds will develop off
the northern and central Florida coasts Wed and Wed night as
Elsa, currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, moves inland across
northern Florida. Elsa is forecast to track northeastward across
the southeastern U.S.through Thu allowing for these winds to
diminish. High pressure will then build westward across the area
through the Sun night. East winds will pulse to fresh to strong
speeds at night between the southeastern Bahamas and the Dominican
Republic through the period.

$$
Mahoney
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