[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KJAX 062106
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Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 27
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL052021
506 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
 301 IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 84 IN
 SOUTHEAST GEORGIA**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Northern Ware,
      Pierce, and Wayne
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Brantley, Clinch, Coastal Camden, Coastal Glynn,
      Echols, Inland Camden, Inland Glynn, Inland Nassau,
      Northeastern Charlton, Southern Ware, and Western Charlton

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Western Clay and
      Western Duval
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baker, Bradford,
      Brantley, Central Marion, Clinch, Coastal Camden, Coastal
      Glynn, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Marion, Echols, Gilchrist,
      Hamilton, Inland Camden, Inland Glynn, Inland Nassau,
      Northeastern Charlton, Northern Columbia, Northern Ware,
      Pierce, Southern Columbia, Southern Ware, Suwannee, Union,
      Wayne, Western Alachua, Western Charlton, and Western Marion

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 330 miles south-southwest of Jacksonville FL or about 240
      miles south-southwest of Ocala FL
    - 25.8N 83.0W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane as it tracks
northward toward the west coast of the Florida peninsula tonight. Elsa
is then forecast to move into the northern portions of the peninsula
Wednesday morning and track northeastward across southeast Georgia on
Wednesday. Some of Elsa impacts will begin to impact the region this
evening with rainbands moving up from the south. Gusty winds of 40 to
50 mph will be possible ahead of Elsa in the showers and thunderstorms
this evening. Sustained tropical storm force winds will arrive later
tonight into early Wednesday morning for counties along and west of
Interstate 75. Heavy rainfall and saturated grounds will enhance the
flood risk over inland areas of northeast FL and southeast Georgia.
Rainfall amounts near 3 to 5 inches with higher amounts to 8 inches are
possible. An isolated tornado will be possible over portions of
northeast Florida tonight into Wednesday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts south and east of Highway 84 in southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across across the rest of southeast Georgia and
northeast Florida.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across along and west of I-75 in northeast Florida. Potential impacts
in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the rest of northeast Florida and south and east of Highway 84
in southeast Georgia.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across portions of north central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the rest of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across coastal southeast Georgia. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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