[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 18
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL052021
502 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

This product covers South Florida

**Elsa is between Jamaica and eastern Cuba this afternoon**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Collier and
      Mainland Monroe

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 440 miles south-southeast of Miami FL or about 500 miles
      south-southeast of Naples FL
    - 19.8N 77.9W
    - Storm Intensity 60 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa is moving west-northwestward between Jamaica and
eastern Cuba this afternoon and is forecast to pass across Cuba on
Monday and approach the Florida Straits late Monday.

* The window of concern for potential impacts across South Florida
  is from early Monday morning through early Wednesday morning.
* The greatest risk for sustained tropical storm force winds and
  surge impacts is along coastal southwest Florida.
* However, all of South Florida is also at risk for tropical storm
  force wind gusts in rain bands and flooding from excessive
  rainfall.
* Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out with Elsa either.
* Some uncertainty remains with the intensity forecast for Elsa as
  it interacts with the islands of the Greater Antilles.
* Residents and visitors should take advantage of the more favorable
  weather through Monday to quickly complete any preparations.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across South
Florida, particularly coastal Southwest Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across vulnerable coastal locations, particularly in coastal Southwest
Florida. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
      branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
      vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong
gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$

RAG
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