[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 1805 UTC Sun Jul 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 18.7N 76.8W at 04/1500 UTC
or 80 nm N of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is over Jamaica and SE Cuba from 15N to 21N between
74W and 79W. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move
off the north coast of Jamaica and eastern portions of Cuba
today, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa
is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head
toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near or across the
Florida Keys late Monday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or
over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as
Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However,
gradual weakening is forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves
across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some slight restrengthening is
possible. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 16 southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N
to 09N between 25W and 33W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W from 10N southward
and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N to 11N between 43W and 55W.

A Caribbean wave is along 85W/86W from 18N southward into
Honduras and Nicaragua and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are over western Panama and
coastal Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea at 09N14W to
06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 04N29W, then from W of
the tropical wave at 04N32W to 07N46W. Scattered showers are
occurring from 03N to 07N between 14W and 23W, and from 01N to
08N between 33W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front along the northern edge of the Gulf and N
Florida is coupling with an upper-level trough in the vicinity
to trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms across the N Gulf.

A ridge of high pressure across the central Gulf will maintain
light to gentle variable winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the
central and southern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh winds and
seas of 2 to 4 ft are found in the northern Gulf, seas up to 5
ft are possible near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elsa is near 18.7N 76.8W 1009
mb at 11 AM EDT and moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds
55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will be inland to 21.9N 80.0W Mon
morning, 23.4N 81.5W Mon evening, 24.7N 82.5W Tue morning, 26.5N
83.0W Tue evening, and 28.6N 82.8W Wed morning. Elsa will move
inland over 33.5N 79.5W by early Thu. Elsewhere in the western
Gulf, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through
early week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Feature section for convective activity on
Tropical Storm Elsa near Jamaica and a tropical wave over the
western Caribbean.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring between Cuba and
Jamaica, and across the entrance to the Windward Passage. Seas
are at 6 to 9 ft near Cuba and Jamaica, and 10 to 18 ft near the
Wind Passage. Please read the Offshore Waters Forecast the
Caribbean Sea for more detail information.

Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are over the central
basin, and near Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of
2 to 4 ft are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elsa is near 18.7N 76.8W 1009 mb at
11 AM EDT and is moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50
kt gusts 60 kt. Elsa will move to 20.2N 78.2W this evening, inland
to 21.9N 80.0W Mon morning, and exit the Caribbean near 23.4N
81.5W by Mon evening. Otherwise, a tropical wave in the western
Caribbean will move W of the region today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extending northeastward from N Florida thru
31N76W is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 29N
from 71W westward to the George and Florida coast. Moderate to
locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found in this area.

A surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1027 mb high near
33N44W thru central Florida. Convergent SE winds along the ridge
axis are producing scattered moderate convection near the N
Bahamas from 24N to 28N between 74W and 78W. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen near this ridge N of 25N
between 22W and 64W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are occurring near the Bahamas and along the W African coast from
the Canary Islands southward to 14N. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 3 to 5 ft are found elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 65W, Atlantic high pressure will shift
slightly eastward through Mon in response to a cold front moving N
of the forecast waters. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds
ahead of the front and N of 28N through today diminish by Mon
afternoon. Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move over portions
of central and western Cuba today into Mon and the Straits of
Florida by Mon afternoon. If the track holds, T.S. Elsa could exit
the northeast Florida coast on Wednesday.

$$

Chan
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