[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida early this morning, and reach from 32N61W to
the Dominican Republic by early Wed. Gale-force southerly winds
are expected ahead of this front north of 27N today through Tue
night, as the front moves eastward between 80W and 61W. Near gale
force W to NW winds are expected behind the front this afternoon
into Tue afternoon, with frequent gusts to gale force. Seas
associated with the front will quickly build to 10-14 ft today,
and to 12-17 ft by Tue in the gale area. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high
pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern
Colombia will support gale conditions this morning off the coast
of Colombia. Gales will end by late morning. Seas of 10 to 13 ft
are expected in the area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
00N51W. Scattered moderate convection exists near the ITCZ from
01N-05N between 30W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Panama City Florida to 25N90W to
Tampico Mexico. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from the
Florida Big Bend to 24N86.5W. Scattered moderate showers and
tstorms are along and within 30 nm ahead of the pre-frontal
trough. The front and trough and moving eastward. The cold front
will reach from Fort Myers, Florida to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula later this morning and move east of the area this
afternoon. Strong NW to N winds currently cover the Gulf of
Mexico to the northwest of the cold front. These strong winds
will prevail behind the front through tonight. Seas are 5 to 8
ft over the Gulf north of 23N, and will increase to 7 to 10 ft
today over the eastern Gulf behind the front.

Looking ahead, strong southerly winds along with building seas
will develop over the western Gulf on Wed and shift to the
central Gulf by Fri ahead of the next cold front. This cold front
that will reach the Texas coast Thu night and move across the NW
and north-central Gulf Fri and Fri night followed by fresh
northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters offshore of Colombia
through the early morning hours today. See the Special Features
section above for details.

Scattered showers seen over the NW Caribbean Sea are being
enhanced by upper-level diffluence, just to the east of an upper-
level trough that extends from the SE Gulf of Mexico to Guatemala
to the East Pacific. Little to no precipitation is seen over the
remainder of the basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong winds
over the central Caribbean between 69W-76W, with fresh trades in
the E Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are in the NW
Caribbean. Seas in the central and SW Caribbean range from 8 to
12 feet, with 5 to 8 ft seas elsewhere. Northerly swell in the
Atlantic is sending 8 to 10 ft seas through Atlantic passages
of the NE Caribbean.

Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will continue to cause
potential coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing
shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola
through tonight, with breaking waves approaching 15 to 20 ft at
some beaches. The swell will start to diminish Tue evening.
Strong high pressure N of the area will support strong to near
gale-force winds in the central Caribbean through this morning,
with gale conditions near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally
strong winds will start to diminish Tue evening. A cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Caribbean this morning, then stall as it
reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by
early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect
the NW Caribbean this afternoon through Tue morning and the SW
Caribbean Tue through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will
re-develop over the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage
Wed night and prevail through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A line of scattered showers and tstorms along a pre-frontal
surface trough is emerging off the coast of Georgia and northern
Florida now and moving into the Atlantic. Near gale to gale force
S to SW winds are occurring in and near these showers and
tstorms. The latest ASCAT pass from Sunday evening showed strong
to near gale force S to SW winds north of 28N between 72W and the
coast of Florida, but this pass occurred prior to the time that
the pre-frontal trough entered the western Atlantic. A cold front
will reach the waters east of northern Florida this morning,
following just a few hours behind the pre-frontal trough. Strong
to near gale force west winds will develop behind the front,
north of the NW Bahamas and east of Florida late this morning and
early this afternoon. Isolated areas of gale force are also
possible behind the front. Seas will build to 10-14 today in the
area. The cold front will reach from near 32N67W to the SE
Bahamas early Tue, then from 32N61W to 25N65W to the Dominican
Republic by early Wed where it will stall before dissipating
early on Thu. Gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of
this front today through Tue night, mainly north of 27N between
60W-80W as the front moves east. Northerly long-period swell
associated with the front will propagate through the forecast
waters today through mid-week, combining with residual swell from
a former front.

A 1025 mb high pressure is currently located near 28N63W. South
of the high pressure, fresh to strong trades are off the north
coast of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. A cold front extends from
32N39W to 26N48W, where it becomes a stationary front that
continues to 20N63W.  Between 38W and 60W, fresh to strong trades
are south of 20N, with fresh to strong westerlies north of 30N,
but gentle winds are from 20N-30N due to surface ridging. The
surface ridge extends NE to a 1027 mb high pressure near 33N21W.
Significant NW swell is producing seas of 12 to 17 ft N of 22N
between 35W-57W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are occurring farther south,
in the fresh to strong trade wind area.

$$
Hagen
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