[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312234
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...Updated

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high
pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern
Colombia will support gale conditions overnight off the coast of
Colombia. Gales will again pulse Mon night into Tue morning.Seas
of 10 to 13 ft are expected in the area, highest around sunrise.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida late tonight, and reach from Bermuda to Turks
and Caicos early Tue. Gale-force southerly winds are expected
ahead of this front north of 27N late tonight through Tue night.
Near gale to frequent gusts to gale force W to NW winds are
expected behind the front beginning from Mon afternoon into early
Tue afternoon. Seas associated with the front will quickly build
over the forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas to 16 ft
in the gale area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W.The ITCZ continues from
06N20W to 02N30W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection exists S
of 05N between 30W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to just S of the Texas-
Mexico border. Fresh SW winds occur ahead of the front, N of 27N,
with fresh to locally strong NW winds behind the front. A weak
surface trough has develop in the Bay of Campeche. Neither system
is producing any convection. Seas range from 3-6 ft.

The cold front will quickly reach from Apalachicola, Florida to
near 25N90W and to the SW Gulf this evening and from Fort Myers,
Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula early on Mon. The front
will move east of the area by early Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong
winds will develop ahead and behind the front this morning and
prevail through Mon night. Strong southerly winds along with
building seas will develop over the western Gulf on Wed and shift
to the central Gulf by Fri ahead of the next cold front that will
reach the Texas coast Thu night and move across the NW and north-
central Gulf Fri and Fri night followed by fresh northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia.

Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will continue to
cause potential coastal flooding and very high surf along
north-facing shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of
Hispaniola through Mon, with breaking waves approaching 15 to 20
ft in some areas.

Deep-layer dry air is maintaining generally fair weather
conditions across the remainder of the basin. Fresh trades
dominate the basin, with strong winds over the central Caribbean.
Seas in the central and SW Caribbean range from 8 to 12 feet, with
5 to 8 ft seas elsewhere. The aforementioned northerly swell in
the Atlantic is sending 8 to 10 ft seas through Atlantic passages,
particularly  the Mona Passage.

Strong high pressure north of the area will support
strong to near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean through
early Mon, with gale conditions developing near the coast of
Colombia again tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds over the
eastern Caribbean will start to diminish Tue. Large long-period
northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean passages
and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters into early next week,
with the largest swell expected through tonight. A cold front is
forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on
Mon, then stall as it reaches from the Dominican Republic to the
central Caribbean by early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following
the front will affect the NW Caribbean Mon afternoon through
early Tue and the SW Caribbean from early Tue through Wed night.
Fresh to strong winds will once again develop over the central
Caribbean Thu through Fri night and through the Windward Passage
from Wed night through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale is forecast to begin late tonight over the NE Florida
offshore waters. See the Special Features section for details.

A cold front extends from 32N42W to 22N53W. A quick-moving high
pressure is passing east near 32N70W. Some strong winds are
occurring on both sides of the front near 20N, with generally
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere N of 20N. Significant NW swell
is producing seas of over 20 ft N of 21N and E of 65W, with waves
peaking near 20 kt near 32N44W.

Farther S, fresh trades exist with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Offshore
the SE U.S. fresh to strong S winds are developing ahead of an
approaching inland cold front.

Large long-period northerly swell east and northeast of the
Bahamas will gradually subside through tonight. A strong cold
front will move east of northern Florida early on Mon, and reach
from near 25N65W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed where it
will stall before dissipating early on Thu. Gale force southerly
winds are expected ahead of this front tonight through Tue night.
Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will
propagate through the forecast waters Mon through mid-week,
combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell will
begin to subside as it becomes confined to the eastern section of
the area Thu through Fri night.

$$
KONARIK
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