[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high
pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern
Colombia will support a continuation of gale force winds over the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this
morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours
tonight and last into Monday morning. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are
expected in the area, highest around sunrise. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida late tonight, and reach from 31N68W to the SE
Bahamas by early Tue. Gale-force southerly winds are expected
ahead of this front north of 28N late tonight through Tue night.
Seas associated with the front will quickly build over the
forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas to 15 ft expected in
the gale area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W to 05N19W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from
04N25W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is within 90 nm N and within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico is in between a 1030 mb high pressure over the
North Carolina Outer Banks and lower pressure over the central
U.S., Texas and Mexico. As a result, moderate to fresh southerly
winds cover most of the basin. Seas range from 3-6 ft. Other than
isolated showers over the south-central Gulf of Mexico, no
significant precipitation areas are present at this time.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds over the
western Gulf will diminish early this morning as a strong cold
front approaches the Texas coast. The front will move off the
Texas coast by sunrise this morning, and push across the basin
through Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail in the
wake of the front tonight through early Tue. Strong to near gale
force southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf Wed and
continue through Thu night, along with building seas, ahead of
the next cold front that may approach the Texas coast late Thu
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia.

Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will continue to cause
potential coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing
shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola
through Monday, with breaking waves approaching 15 to 20 feet in
some areas.

Deep-layer dry air prevails, although isolated trade winds
showers are possible across the basin from 14N-20N. The latest
ASCAT wind data pass from around 31/0200 UTC shows strong winds
in the central Caribbean, with near gale force winds near the
coast of Colombia. Strong NE winds are seen in the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the far eastern
and far NW Caribbean. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are between Haiti and
the coast of Colombia, with 5 to 7 ft seas across most of the
remainder of the basin. Higher seas are occurring in the
Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will
support strong to near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean
through tonight, with gale conditions developing near the coast
of Colombia again tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds over the
eastern Caribbean will start to diminish Tue. Large long-period
northerly swell will propagate through the northeastern Caribbean
passages during the rest of this weekend and into early next
week, with the largest swell expected through tonight. A cold
front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula on Mon, then stall as it reaches from the Dominican
Republic to the central Caribbean by early Wed. Fresh to strong
winds will follow the front affecting the NW basin through Tue
and the far SW basin Tue and Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale is forecast to begin late tonight to the east of northern
Florida. See the Special Features section for details.

Currently, a 1030 mb high pressure centered over the North
Carolina Outer Banks extends a surface ridge to 30N74W to 25N68W
to 23N60W. Gentle to moderate winds are near the ridge axis. The
latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds developing off the coast
of northern and central Florida. Fresh to strong E to NE winds
are in the waters near the Greater Antilles and through the
Caribbean passages.

A 989 mb storm force low centered north of the area near 39N54W
extends an associated cold front from 32N49W to 28N54W. A recent
ASCAT pass shows strong W winds behind this front to 66W, and
north of 28N. Near gale force winds are seen north of 30.5N
between 53W-63W. A broad area of very large swell is bringing
seas in excess of 12 ft for areas N of 18N and between 32W-70W,
with heights peaking over 20 ft north of 29N between 51W-61W.

A stationary front is analyzed from 32N42W to the Virgin Islands
near 18N64W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 90 nm
NW of the stationary front, north of 27N and east of 50W. A 1030
mb high centered near 33N22W extends a surface ridge axis SW to
near 21N55W, with gentle winds near the ridge axis. Fresh trades
prevail across the tropical Atlantic to the south of the ridge.

For the forecast, large long-period northerly swell east and
northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside through tonight,
but will continue through Mon over the central Atlantic, east of
60W. A strong cold front will move east of northern Florida late
tonight, reach from near 32N61W to the Dominican Republic by
early Wed and weaken from 32N58W to 24N62W by early Thu. Gale
force southerly winds are expected ahead of this front north of
about 28N tonight through Tue night. Northerly long-period swell
associated with the front will propagate through the forecast
waters Mon through mid-week, while combining with residual swell.
The swell will begin to gradually subside Thu and Thu night.

$$
Hagen
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