[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: An intense low pressure system
north of the area trails a cold front into the subtropics from
31N58W to 21N76W. Scatterometer data at 0000 UTC showed a large
area of gale force winds associated with the low, north of 26N
between 58W and 72W. This area of gale force winds will shift
eastward with the front during the next 18 hours, then move
north of the forecast area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the
area will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central
Caribbean through Tue, with gale conditions expected to develop
near northern Colombia Saturday night. The combination of the
strong high and the low pressure over northern Colombia will
support gale force winds near Colombia on Saturday night. Seas
are expected to increase to 12-14 ft north of Colombia Saturday
night through Sunday morning. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to
03N26W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 01N to 04N between 08W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface
ridge passes through the upper Texas Gulf coast to the coastal
plains of Mexico near 21N97W.

Strong winds and large seas, associated with a cold front that
exited the region yesterday, will diminish gradually today.
Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf of Mexico on
Friday and Saturday, in advance of a cold front moving off the
Texas coast on Sunday. The front will move quickly across the
basin from Sunday through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia.

A dissipating cold front extends across the NW Caribbean Sea
from 21N77W in central Cuba to near 20N88W in the northern
Yucatan peninsula. Isolated showers and gusty north to northeast
winds are associated with the front.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated showers, span
the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate
precipitation are moving with the easterly low level wind flow.

The dissipating cold front will move southward and weaken across
the NW Caribbean through Saturday morning. Strong high pressure
north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the
south-central Caribbean through Tuesday, with gale conditions
expected near the coast of northern Colombia Saturday night.
Large northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean
passages and into the Tropical N Atlantic waters through the
weekend, with the largest swell expected Saturday night through
Sunday night. A second cold front is forecast to approach the NW
Caribbean on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the west-central Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends across the forecast area from 32N57W across
the southern Bahamas to 21N76W in central Cuba. Scatterometer
data shows strong winds cover the entire western Atlantic, west
of the front. Large seas to 30 ft are observed within the area
of strong winds. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and
scattered showers are within 75 nm on either side of the front.

A surface trough is analyzed across the central Atlantic Ocean
from 32N32W to 16N61W near Guadeloupe. Widespread cloudiness and
a few showers are associated with the trough axis.

Gale force winds and large seas are north of 27N in the west-
central Atlantic. The cold front across the forecast area will
reach from 24N60W to the Windward Passage Saturday morning, then
become stationary from 21N60W to the Mona Passage by Saturday
night. Large northerly swell associated with the front will
affect most of the forecast area east of the Bahamas through
Monday. Another cold front will move east of northern Florida
late Sunday night or early Monday.

$$
Mundell
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