[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272208
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast tonight while the associated low pressure rapidly
intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds as high
as 45 kt and extremely large seas, up to around 30 ft on Fri near
31N55W, are expected with this system as it moves eastward across
the Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales will first
begin late tonight just east of northern Florida. By Thu evening,
the gales will be occurring north of 27N between 57W-73W. The
gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri evening. Seas are
expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between 40W-74W, beginning
Thu afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing eastward through
Saturday. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front from Alabama to just
south of Tampico, Mexico will quickly move southeastward across
the basin through Thu. Gale force winds will continue across the
west central Gulf through tonight with gales developing over SW
Gulf tonight through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish below gale
force Thu night, and continue diminishing on Fri. Seas will peak
around 8-12 ft during this event. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N18W to 02N27W to
04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 07N
between 30W and the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from Alabama to just south of Tampico,
Mexico. Ahead of the cold front, a pre- frontal trough extends
from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. A line of
moderate to strong convection is noted within 30nm of the pre-
frontal trough north of 28N and east of 86W. Gale force winds
prevail west of the front and south of 25N, with fresh to near
gale winds elsewhere west of the front. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail east of the front. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the
western Gulf, with 4-6 ft seas over the central Gulf. Seas are in
the 1-3 ft range over the eastern Gulf as well as the SW Gulf.

The cold front will continue moving south and east across the
western and central Gulf of Mexico this evening. The front will
be over central Florida to Veracruz, Mexico tonight and exit the
basin by Thu afternoon. Gale-force winds will continue across the
west central Gulf through tonight with gales developing over SW
Gulf tonight through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish on Fri.
Return S winds should begin building over W Gulf on Fri ahead of
the next cold front moving off the Texas coast by Sun. This front
will move eastward across the basin and shift SE of the area by
early Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Tropical N Atlantic into the
NE Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central
Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds across the eastern Caribbean,
and gentle to moderate winds across the western Caribbean. Seas
are in the 8-12 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft
elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the south-
central Caribbean through the end of the week. Gale conditions
are possible Fri night and Sat night north of Colombia. A strong
cold front will move across the NW Caribbean on Thu. Behind the
front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over the NW
Caribbean waters through Sat and over the Atlantic passages from
Fri afternoon through Sun. N swell will propagate into the NE
Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the
weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night. The
next cold front may approach the NW Caribbean on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic.

West of 65W: A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the
southern portion of the forecast waters, anchored by high
pressure of 1021 mb centered near 24N62W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail on either side of the ridge, with light to gentle
winds along the ridge. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range east of 70W,
and 3-5 ft elsewhere west of 70W.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will move off the SE U.S.
coast tonight while the associated low pressure rapidly
intensifies north of the forecast area. The front will stretch
from 31N69W to western Cuba by Thu afternoon and from 31N59W to
eastern Cuba by Thu night. Gale force winds and very large seas
are expected with this system tonight through Thu night, mainly N
of 27N. Winds should diminish by Fri and seas should subside by
Sun. The next cold front may move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night
with fresh to strong winds off the Florida coast.

East of 65W, a stationary front extends from near 31N32W to the
northern Leeward Islands near 17N62W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail east of 65W and N of 20N, with moderate to fresh winds
south of 20N. Seas of 12-14 ft prevail N of 29N between 30W and
45W. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range elsewhere north of 20N, and
5-8 ft south of 20N.

$$
AL
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