[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast tonight while the associated low pressure rapidly
intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds as high
as 45 kt and extremely large seas, up to around 30 ft on Fri near
31N55W, are expected with this system as it moves eastward across
the Atlantic through Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales will first
begin late tonight just east of northern Florida. By Thu evening,
the gales will be occurring north of 27N between 57W-73W. The
gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri evening. Seas are
expected to exceed 20 ft north of 27N between 40W-74W, beginning
Thu afternoon near 64W-74W and progressing eastward through
Saturday. Seas should subside by Sun. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front that currently extends
from Biloxi, MS to just N of Tampico, Mexico will quickly move
southeastward across the basin through Thu. The latest ASCAT pass
shows that strong to near gale force N winds are occurring NW of
the front, with frequent gusts to gale force possible offshore of
Brownsville, TX in the coastal waters. Sustained gales will
develop early this afternoon over the west-central Gulf and
offshore Tampico, and then over the SW Gulf tonight through Thu.
Winds and seas will diminish below gale Thu night, and continue
diminishing on Fri. Seas will peak around 8-12 ft during this
event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N17W to 02N27W to
04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted roughly from the equator to
06N between 28W and the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from Biloxi, MS near 30N88W to just north of
Tampico, Mexico near 23N98W. Ahead of the cold front, a pre-
frontal trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to a 1012 mb low
pressure centered at 22N96W. According to NWS Doppler radar, a
line of moderate to strong convection is noted within 30nm of the
pre-frontal trough north of 28N and east of 88W. In the central
and eastern Gulf, observations show gentle to moderate southerly
flow, with seas mainly 2-4 ft.

Areas of dense fog with visibilities reduced to near 1 nm are
possible through this afternoon east of the mouth of the
Mississippi River to near the west coast of Florida.

The cold front will continue moving south and east across the
western and central Gulf of Mexico today. The front will be over
central Florida to Veracruz, Mexico tonight and exit the basin
by Thu afternoon. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front
with gales developing over west-central Gulf this afternoon and
over the SW Gulf tonight through Thu. Winds and seas will
diminish on Fri. In the wake of this strong cold front, winds
will begin to veer by the end of the week into the weekend as
high pressure slides from over the southern Mississippi Valley
to the Carolinas. Southerly return winds should begin increasing
over the W Gulf on Fri evening ahead of the next cold front
moving off the Texas coast by Sun. That next front is forecast
to approach the SE Gulf by the end of the weekend/early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Tropical N Atlantic to south
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, terminating just south of
the Mona Passage. Isolated showers remain possible along this
boundary. Strong winds were observed by the scatterometer in the
central Caribbean, with near gales off the coast of Colombia.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the NW and far E Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue across the south-
central Caribbean through the end of the week. Gale conditions
are possible Fri night and Sat night north of Colombia. A strong
cold front will move across the NW Caribbean on Thu. Behind the
front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over the NW
Caribbean waters Fri through Sat and over the Atlantic passages
from Fri afternoon through Sun. N swell will propagate into the
NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the
weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic.

High pressure of 1022 mb is noted near 25N62W with a ridge axis
extending west-northwest across the northern Bahamas to near Lake
Okeechobee, Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
noted from 22N-27N east of the Bahamas to 50W, with moderate to
fresh E trades south of 22N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft outside the
Bahamas to 65W.

To the east, a stationary front extends from near 31N32W to the
northern Leeward Islands near 17N62W. Isolated showers are
possible near this boundary. A stationary front is along 32N
between 44W-57W. An area of fresh W winds is noted north of 28N
between 35W and 65W, while large mixed northerly swell of 8-13 ft
dominates the open waters east of 60W. Fresh NE winds were noted
in the latest scatterometer pass from 05N-20N between 40W-60W.

A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight while
the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the
forecast area. The front will stretch from 31N68W to the Straits
of Florida by Thu afternoon and from 31N58W to eastern Cuba by
Thu night. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with
this system tonight through early Fri, mainly N of 27N. Winds
should diminish Fri and seas should subside by Sun. The next cold
front may move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night.

$$
Hagen
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