[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the SE
U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly
intensifies north of the forecast region. Near gale to gale
force winds and very large seas are expected with this system
Wed night through early Fri, mainly N of 26N from the NE Florida
offshore waters to the central Atlantic waters. Seas as high as
20 to 30 ft are expected across the western and central Atlantic,
particularly N of 27N between 50W and 70W by Thu night, with
seas of 12 ft reaching the waters just E of the northern and
central Bahamas. These hazardous marine conditions will dominate
the central Atlantic by Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located N of the Caribbean
Sea combined with a developing low over NW Colombia will support
minimal gale force winds over Colombia adjacent waters tonight
through early Wed morning. Wave heights in the range of 10-14 ft
are expected during the peak winds tonight. Gale conditions are
possible again Friday and Saturday night.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A reinforcing cold front will reach
a stationary front analyzed along the far western Gulf of Mexico
by Wed morning, and the combined front will quickly move
southeastward across the basin through Thu. Strong to near
gale-force northerly winds will follow the front, with gales
developing over the W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late
Wed early evening through Thu. Seas are forecast to build to
10-14 ft over the SW Gulf by early Thu morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W
to 04N14W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N14W to 04N36W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 06N between 22W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
about a gale warning for the far western Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from south- central Louisiana SW to a
1009 mb low over the SW Gulf. A ridge extends across the eastern
Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail over the
eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds over the western
Gulf. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the eastern Gulf, and 4-6
ft over the western Gulf.

The stationary front will continue to linger across the region
through tonight. A reinforcing cold front will reach the
stationary front by Wed morning and the combined front will
quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Fresh to
strong N winds will follow the front with gales developing over
W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed through Thu.
Winds and seas will diminish on Fri. Return S winds should begin
building over W Gulf on Fri evening ahead of the next cold front
moving off the Texas coast by Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
about a gale warning for the Colombia adjacent waters.

High pressure prevails north of the area. Fresh to near gale
winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the central
Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft over the
western Caribbean.

High pressure N of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian
low will support minimal gale force winds near the northern
Colombian coast tonight through early Wed morning. Gale
conditions are possible again Fri and Sat night. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras through
tonight. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Thu.
Behind the front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over
the NW Caribbean waters on Fri and through the passes Fri
afternoon through Sat. N swell will propagate into the NE
Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters today through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
about an Atlantic gale warning.

West of 65W: Surface high pressure of 1021 mb is centered near
26N66W with ridge extending westward across Florida. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted on either side of the ridge axis, with
gentle to moderate winds along the ridge axis. Seas are in the
6-8 ft range east of 70W, and 3-5 ft over the open waters west of
70W.

For the forecast, low pressure crossing north of Bermuda will
bring fresh to strong W winds off the NE coast of Florida tonight
into Wed. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed
night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies
north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very large seas
are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night, mainly
N of 27N. Winds should diminish by Fri and seas should subside
by Sun.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N34W SW to the NE
Caribbean. Fresh to near gale winds prevail within 210 nm east
of the front N of 28N, with fresh to strong winds west of the
front and N of 29N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N
of 20N, with moderate to fresh winds south of 20N. The cold front
has ushered in a set of NW swell. Seas of 12-18 ft are noted N
of 25N between 35W and 57W, with seas in the 8-12 ft range
elsewhere N of 20N. South of 20N, seas are in the 5-7 ft range.

$$
AL
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