[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the
Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will
continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90
nm off the coast of Colombia each night through at least early
Wed morning. Wave heights generated by these winds are forecast
to be in the range of 10-13 ft, mainly around daybreak each day.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 04N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N18W to 03N40W to the
coast of northern Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ from 00N to 06N W of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Patchy dense fog can be seen on satellite along the northern
Gulf coast from Galveston, TX to Morgan City, LA and near the
Florida coast from Apalachicola to the western Apalachee Bay.
Fog will be possible in these areas until this evening. Buoy,
platform observations, and latest scatterometer data, depict
fresh to locally strong SE to S winds across the western Gulf of
Mexico. In the eastern Gulf, high pressure over the western
Atlantic is driving mainly moderate to locally fresh SE winds.
Other than the patchy dense fog mentioned above, no significant
weather is observed in the Gulf of Mexico.

The pressure gradient between a ridge over the eastern Gulf
waters and lower pressure over Mexico and Texas will continue to
support fresh to strong S winds across W Gulf today. A weak cold
front will move off the coast of Texas this evening, then stall
over NW Gulf through Tue. A reinforcing cold front will reach
the stationary front by Tue night, and the combined front will
quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Fresh
to strong N winds will follow the front, with gales developing
over W Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
about gale force winds during the overnight and early morning
hours near the coast of Colombia.

According to the latest scatterometer pass, moderate to fresh
trades prevail over the Caribbean, with an area of strong winds
observed in the central Caribbean just south of Hispaniola.
Fresh to locally strong winds are also expected in the Windward
passage today, extending to the night hours. Otherwise,
middle-level water vapor imagery show dry and stable air over
the basin, with only a few plumes of shallow moisture depicted
in the low-level precipitable water imagery. This shallow
moisture along with middle to upper level diffluent flow may
support isolated showers mainly over the NW Caribbean today.

The Bermuda high north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the
Colombian Low will support trades near gale to gale force,
continuing during the overnight and early morning hours through
Wed night. Pulsing near gale to gale force winds will likely
resume again in this area Fri night. Mainly moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong over the
Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue night with seas building to
6-8 ft. N swell will propagate into the Tropical N Atlantic
waters Tue through Thu. A reinforcing cold front is approaching
the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today,
reaching these islands on Tue. A strong cold front will enter
the NW Caribbean on Thu followed by fresh to strong NE winds
over the NW Caribbean waters on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic
from 31N40W to 22N52W and terminates at 20N72W near the Turks
and Caicos Islands. Fresh to strong SW to W winds associated
with the front are north of 25N between 39W and 60W as indicated
by the latest scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection
and isolated tstms are within 180 nm either side of the front N
of 27N. Otherwise, surface high pressure prevails over the SW N
Atlc waters, being anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near
30N74W. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh
southerly flow between the center of high pressure and the NE
coast of Florida.

Looking ahead in the western Atlantic, the cold front extending
along 21N will continue to move southward into the Greater
Antilles on Tue. S winds will increase across the waters east of
N Florida today and tonight. Low pressure crossing north of
Bermuda will bring fresh to strong W winds to the NE waters on
Tue. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed
night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies
north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very large seas
are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night,
mainly N of 27N.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the
influence of a ridge, anchored by a high pressure of 1026 mb
located north of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are
along the southern periphery of the ridge.

$$
Mahoney/Ramos
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