[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure due north of the Caribbean
Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia through at least early Wed morning. Wave heights
generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-13
ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N30W to
04N38W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N
between 07W-12W, and from 02N-05N between 20W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf coastal waters.
This front will slowly retreat northward as a warm front today.
Dense fog, reducing visibility to less than one mile, is expected
N of the boundary, particularly from Lake Charles, Louisiana to
Brownsville, Texas. Moderate easterly winds are noted N of the
front based on scatterometer data. A surface trough is near the W
coast of the Yucatan peninsula producing mainly moderate winds.
Light to gentle winds are observed elsewhere across the Gulf
waters. High clouds are moving from central Mexico into the Gulf
region due to strong southwesterly flow aloft.

Building high pressure over the SE U.S. will bring increasing
southerly return flow and building seas over the western Gulf
today and Mon. The ridge will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front
moves into the western Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front
will then get reinforced on Wed and progress eastward across the
basin through Thu night. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected
in the wake of the front on Wed, with gale conditions possible in
the Veracruz area Wed night into Thu. Seas are forecast to build
up to 13 or 14 ft with the strongest winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and
early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Please, refer to
the Special Features section above for details.

Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing
to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Tue and Tue night with
seas building to 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are also
expected in the Windward passage tonight, and south of Dominican
Republic tonight through Mon night. Shallow moisture embedded in
the trade winds flow is seen across the basin producing isolated
to scattered passing showers. Patches of low level moisture with
possible light showers, carried by the trade winds, are affecting
most of Honduras and north-central Nicaragua.

Northerly swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages on Tue with
additional pulses of N swell reaching the same area Thu night into
Fri. Northerly swell will also propagate into the Tropical North
Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu night.

A cold front currently located along 26N W of 60W with continue to
move southward, approaching the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola by Mon night. This front could bring an increase
in the likelihood of rain over these islands on Tue. Another cold
front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night followed
by fresh to strong northerly winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the central and Western Atlantic from
31N48W to 26N65W to near West Palm Beach, FL. Doppler radar shows
a few showers associated with the front between the NW Bahamas
and the coast of Florida. This system is forecast to move
southward reaching 25N by Sun morning, 22N-23N by Sun night, and
21N by Mon morning. It will bring a slight chance of showers to
South Florida tonight. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N47W to
23N70W. Scattered showers are ahead of the trough N of 26N.

A reinforcing cold front will slide across the waters north of
27N and east of 70W today and Mon, bringing strong to near gale
force winds and building seas to the waters north of 29N between
55W-65W. large northerly swell will follow the front, building
seas to 15-18 ft across the central Atlantic near 31N by tonight.
Southerly flow will increase across the waters E of north-central
Florida Mon into Tue.

A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Thu while
the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area
through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large seas
are likely with this system.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of a ridge anchored by a high pressure of 1023 mb located just SE
of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are along the
southern periphery of the ridge.

$$
GR
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