[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0105 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of a 1017 mb high center
over the Atlantic near 23N69W north of Puerto Rico and low
pressure over northern Colombia is resulting in a tight pressure
gradient in the south-central Caribbean. This will lead to
northeast to east winds to pulse to gale force tonight and into
early on Sun along and near the coast of Colombia. This favorable
synoptic pattern setup will continue to promote pulsing of winds
to gale force well into next week. Wave heights generated by
these winds are forecast to be in the range of 8-12 ft, mainly
around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W to 02N39W to
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between
13W-19W, from 02S-05N between 25W-40W, and from 02N-04N
between 34W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An E-W oriented stationary front extends across the Gulf of
Mexico from 22N82W to 22N96W. A 1019 mb high pressure is
centered near 22N82W. High pressure ridging is also nosing
into the NE Gulf, north of the front. Gentle anticyclonic
wind speeds are present south of the aforementioned stationary
front. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are north of
the frontal boundary in the NE Gulf. Satellite imagery shows
overcast low and mid-level clouds, with possible patches of
drizzle along and within 120 nm north of the frontal boundary.

Low stratus clouds and patchy areas of fog are noted over the NW
Gulf close to the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Dense fog, with
visibilities reduced to 1 nm or less are likely to increase in
coverage again during the overnight hours and into Sun morning
over the Gulf waters near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. The
stationary front will begin to lift northward as a warm front
tonight through Sun. As the front lifts N, the fog will dissipate
from coastal areas of the southern and central Texas coast by
late Sun morning. Farther north, the dense fog may persist
through the day Sun into Sun night from Galveston through the
Louisiana coasts, possibly spreading to coastal areas of
Mississippi.

High pressure will build over the SE U.S. with increasing
southerly return flow and building seas Sun and Mon. The ridge
will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front moves into the western
Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front will then get reinforced
and progress eastward across the basin into Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean north of the
coast of Colombia.

Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail, except for
moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean. Seas are 3 ft
or less in the northwest Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere.
Satellite imagery reveals patches of low-level clouds moving
westward in the trade wind flow. Isolated showers are possible
with some of these clouds.  Otherwise, no significant convection
is noted over the Caribbean waters, over the islands and nearby
land areas.

High pressure due north of the Caribbean will continue to
support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean,
with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight and early
morning hours off Colombia into late next week. Mainly moderate
to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to
strong over the Gulf of Honduras Mon night through Wed. N swell
will propagate into the Tropical North Atlantic waters Mon night
into Thu night. A cold front will enter the Yucatan Channel Thu
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 30N50W to 26N63W to Cape Canaveral
Florida. Satellite imagery shows broken low and mid-level clouds,
with embedded isolated showers, along and within 100 nm north of
the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are within 120 nm SE of the
front, north of 27N and east of 58W. Fresh NW winds are north of
30N between 62W-72W. Gentle winds are found through the Bahamas,
with moderate to locally fresh wind speeds north of the Bahamas.
A set of large northerly swell with seas of 8-11 ft associated
with the frontal system extend across the waters north of 26N
and east of 64W, with 3-6 ft seas noted elsewhere outside of
the Bahamas, except 4-7 ft east of 70W.

The cold front near Cape Canaveral Florida will sag S to along
24N by Sun morning, and along 21N by Mon morning. A reinforcing
cold front will slide across the waters north of 25N and east
of 70W Sun and Mon, bringing strong to near gale force winds
and building seas to the waters north of 29N between 55W-65W.
A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Thu while
the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area
through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large
seas are likely with this system east of NE Florida Thu, with
storm force winds possible north of 32N.

A cold front extends from 30N49W to 26N69W to 27N80W.
Upper-level disturbance is located to the NE of the front with
scattered  moderate convection noted along a line that extends
from 25N50W to 31N39W. Fresh to strong south winds are within
150 nm east of the front north of about 27N, while northerly
swell of 7-11 ft covers the waters north of 20N, except 11-14 ft
north of 27N between 37W-50W. A 1025 mb high pressure center is
centered north of the Canary Islands near 31N15W with a ridge
axis reaching from the high west-southwestward through 22N45W.
Moderate to fresh trades cover the waters south of 20N, with
gentle to moderate trades found near the ridge. Seas of 6-9 ft
in mainly fresh trade wind swell dominate the open waters of the
tropical Atlantic.

$$
MTorres
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