[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of a 1017 mb high center
over the Atlantic near 23N69W north of Puerto Rico and low
pressure over northern Colombia is resulting in a tight pressure
gradient in the south-central Caribbean. This will again lead to
northeast to east winds to pulse to gale force tonight and into
early on Sun along and near the coast of Colombia. This favorable
synoptic pattern setup will continue to promote pulsing of winds
to gale force well into next week. Wave heights generated by
these winds are forecast to be in the range of 8-12 ft, mainly
around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N23W to
03N30W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N
between 17W-19W, from 02S-05N between 27W-39W, and from 02N-04N
between 48W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An E-W oriented stationary front extends across the Gulf of
Mexico from Clearwater Florida to Rockport Texas. A 1019 mb high
pressure is centered over the Florida Keys. High pressure ridging
is also nosing into the NE Gulf, north of the front. Gentle
anticyclonic wind speeds are present south of the aforementioned
stationary front. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are
north of the frontal boundary in the NE Gulf. Satellite imagery
shows overcast low and mid-level clouds, with possible patches of
drizzle along and within 120 nm north of the frontal boundary.

Low stratus clouds and patchy dense fog are noted over the NW
Gulf close to the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Dense fog, with
visibilities reduced to 1 nm or less are likely to increase in
coverage again during the overnight hours and into Sun morning
over the Gulf waters near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. The
stationary front will begin to lift northward as a warm front
tonight through Sun. As the front lifts N, the fog will dissipate
from coastal areas of the southern and central Texas coast by
late Sun morning. Farther north, the dense fog may persist
through the day Sun into Sun night from Galveston through the
Louisiana coasts, possibly spreading to coastal areas of
Mississippi.

High pressure will build over the SE U.S. with increasing
southerly return flow and building seas Sun and Mon. The ridge
will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front moves into the western
Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front will then get reinforced
and progress eastward across the basin into Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean north of the
coast of Colombia.

Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail, except for
moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean. Seas are 3 ft
or less in the northwest Caribbean, and mainly 4-7 ft elsewhere.
Satellite imagery reveals patches of low-level clouds moving
westward in the trade wind flow. Isolated showers are possible
with some of these clouds. Scattered showers are over eastern
Panama. Otherwise, no significant convection is noted over the
Caribbean waters, over the islands and nearby land areas.

The Bermuda High displaced southward to the Bahamas will support
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, with
winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight and early
morning hours off Colombia into late next week. Mainly moderate
to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to
strong over the Gulf of Honduras Mon night through Wed. N swell
will propagate into the waters east of the Lesser Antilles, and
through the eastern Caribbean passages, Mon night into Thu
night. A cold front will enter the Yucatan Channel Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N53W to 27N65W to Cape Canaveral
Florida. Satellite imagery shows broken low and mid-level clouds,
with embedded isolated showers, along and within 120 nm north of
the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are within 120 nm SE of the
front, north of 27N and east of 58W. Fresh NW winds are north of
30N between 62W-72W. A 1017 mb high pressure is analyzed east of
the SE Bahamas near 23N69W, with a ridge axis extending WNW to a
1019 mb high centered over the Florida Keys. Gentle winds are
found through the Bahamas, with moderate to locally fresh wind
speeds north of the Bahamas. A set of large northerly swell with
seas of 8-11 ft associated with the frontal system extend across
the waters north of 26N and east of 64W, with 3-6 ft seas noted
elsewhere outside of the Bahamas, except 4-7 ft east of 70W.

The cold front from 27N65W to Cape Canaveral Florida will sag S
to along 24N by Sun morning, and along 21N by Mon morning.
A reinforcing cold front will slide across the waters north of
25N and east of 70W Sun and Mon, bringing strong to near gale
force winds and building seas to the waters north of 29N between
55W-65W. A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast
Thu while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of
the area through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very
large seas are likely with this system east of NE Florida Thu,
with storm force winds possible north of 32N.

East of 55W, a cold front extends from 32N33W to 28N39W, where
it becomes a weakening stationary front to 27N45W. An upper-
level disturbance is located to the NW of the front. Scattered
moderate convection is from 27N-32N between 39W-50W. Fresh to
strong south winds are within 150 nm east of the front north of
about 28N, while northerly swell of 7-11 ft covers the waters
north of 20N, except 11-14 ft north of 27N between 37W-50W. A
1025 mb high pressure center is centered north of the Canary
Islands near 32N16W with a ridge axis reaching from the high
west-southwestward through 25N37W. Moderate to fresh trades
cover the waters south of 22N, with gentle to moderate trades
found near the ridge. Seas of 6-9 ft in mainly fresh trade wind
swell dominate the open waters of the tropical Atlantic.

$$
Hagen
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