[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jan 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights reaching 8
feet, off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 74W and
75.5W. These conditions are imminent. The wind speeds will
become less than gale-force starting about sunrise today on
Saturday. The same wind and sea height conditions are forecast
to start, again, on Saturday night. Please, read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N20W, and to 04N27W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N27W, to 04N38W, to 05N44W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the ITCZ
southward between 28W and 32W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow with a trough, covers the area that is
from 10N to 28N between 26W and 45W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong are from 10N
northward from 37W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are within 180 nm of the land in the Gulf
of Mexico, from 20N94W in a clockwise manner until the Tampa
Florida metropolitan area. A surface trough is in the western
Gulf of Mexico within 90 nm of land from 20N to 29N. A cold
front extends from the Atlantic Ocean through 30N80W to the
Florida Big Bend. A stationary front continues from the Florida
Big Bend, along 30N, to a Texas 1012 mb low pressure center that
is near 30N97W.

A surface ridge passes through the NW half of the Bahamas,
across Florida, into the west central Gulf of Mexico near
26N92W.

A surface ridge extends from the Florida Keys to the west
central Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that a stationary front
along the northern Gulf may sag southward slightly, before
stalling along the offshore waters boundary later tonight. The
front then will retreat northward as a warm front through the
remainder of the weekend. High pressure will build again in the
southeastern U.S.A., with increasing southerly return flow and
building seas from Sunday into early next week. The ridge will
weaken late Monday, as a weak cold front moves into the western
Gulf of Mexico, stalling by early Tuesday. The front will get
reinforced and progress eastward across the basin through the
remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, across
Panama, beyond 08N82W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward from 70W
westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence spans the entire Caribbean Sea.

The Bermuda High, displaced southward to the east of the
Bahamas, will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds will be pulsing to
gale-force during the overnight hours off Colombia through the
next several nights. Mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh-to-strong in the Gulf of
Honduras from Monday through Wednesday. N swell will propagate
into the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean  from Monday night
through Thursday. A cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel
from the northwest on Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N60W to 29N70W, to NE Florida, and
to the Florida Big Bend. The front continues as stationary, to
SE Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate, are from 26N northward from 48W westward.

A cold front curves from 32N44W to 26N46W to 23N50W and 21N60W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 90 nm to 200 nm to the east of the cold front from 25N
northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 60 nm on either
side of the cold front.

A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 32N17W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward from 40W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center that
is near 24N64W, across the Bahamas, toward the central Gulf of
Mexico.

The Bermuda High has been displaced southward to the east of the
Bahamas near 24N64W. A cold front, extending from south of
Bermuda to northeast Florida, will reach along 26N by Saturday
evening, while a reinforcing cold front merges with it along 25N
by Sunday morning. The merged front will stall along 20N off the
coast of the Dominican Republic by Monday afternoon, and then
dissipate on Tue. A new cold front will move across the northern
waters on Tuesday night, shifting southward while weakening
through early Thursday. Another cold front may move off the
southeastern U.S.A coast by Thursday afternoon, while the parent
low pressure center intensifies rapidly north of the area,
through the end of the week. Gale-force winds and very large
seas are possible with this system.

$$
mt/jl
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