[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Expect gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to
12N between 74W and 76W, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to
10 feet, from the early morning hours of today until the middle
of today. Expect the same conditions in the same areas in 24
hours or so. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast,
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W, to 04N20W, and to 03N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N24W, to the Equator along 28W, and to 01S34W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 01N to 03N between 17W
and 19W, and within 60 nm to the north of the monsoon trough
between 18W and 20W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 10N southward between 30W and 53W. An upper level
trough is along 35W, from a cyclonic circulation center that is
near 18N, southward. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate
to strong are from 29N southward from 37W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure center is between Andros Island, the NW
Bahamas, and SE Florida. A surface ridge extends from the 1019
mb high pressure center, into the central Gulf of Mexico,
to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W.

A surface ridge extends from southern Florida to northeast
Texas. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico
by late Friday. The front will stall across the northern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday night, then dissipate through Saturday night.
High pressure, building to the north of front in the Carolinas,
will support an increase of SE winds and building seas across
the western Gulf of Mexico from Saturday into Sunday. Strong SE
winds are possible in the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Sunday
night, as low pressure forms in northern Mexico. The winds
and the seas diminish across the Gulf into Monday, as the high
pressure shifts more to the east and a weak cold front moves
into the coastal waters of Texas through Monday night. The front
will stall in the NW Gulf of Mexico, and move northward on
Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, beyond
07N78W in Colombia just to the south of the border with Panama.
Precipitation: scattered strong is within 45 nm to the east of
the monsoon trough from 06N to 07N between 76W and 78W.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence spans the entire Caribbean Sea.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh
to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, with winds
pulsing to gale-force during the overnight hours off
Colombia through the next several nights. Mainly moderate to
fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong
near the Gulf of Honduras early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N49W to 30N53W, 28N60W and 27N70W.
A dissipating stationary front passes through 32N45W to 29N50W,
24N60W and 21N70W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, are from 23N northward between 30W and 60W.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is between Andros Island, the NW
Bahamas, and SE Florida. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean from the Greater Antilles northward
from 70W westward.

A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 32N26W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 18N
northward from 50W eastward.

A dissipating cold front from 27N65W to 26N70W will completely
dissipate later tonight. Another front will move into the waters
between Bermuda and NE Florida on Friday. The front will reach
along 29N by Saturday morning, then merging with a reinforcing
front along 23N to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands by
Sunday evening, then stalling along 20N off the coast of the
Dominican Republic by Monday evening. High pressure will build
into the area in the wake
of this front. Yet another cold front may move across the basin
on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

$$
mt/jl
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