[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico
will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds over the
south-central Caribbean through the next couple of days. Local
overnight land breeze influences are allowing these winds to
pulse to gale force this morning, and again tonight along the
coast of Colombia, mainly within 90 nm of the coast between
Cartagena and Barranquilla. The high pressure weakens by Fri
night, but may be strong enough to still support additional gales
in this area late Fri night into early Sat morning. Please refer
to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N09W, to 03N13W, and to 03N17W to 03N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N20W to 03N20W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 04N to 06N between 10W and 13W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary front extends from weak 1020 mb low pressure
over the coast Texas southward into the central coast of
Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico. Farther east, 1024 mb high
pressure is analyzed over the northeast Gulf near 27N85W. Moderate
southerly flow is evident over the northwest Gulf this morning
between these two pressure centers in buoy and platform
observations, as well as in a recent scatterometer pass. The
southerly flow is bringing relatively warm, moist air over cooler
shelf waters off Texas and Louisiana, creating areas of dense fog
in some areas close to the coast. Observations from platforms
farther offshore where waters are a little warmer indicate no
restrictions to visibility. Farther south, the scatterometer pass
confirmed a band of fresh NE to E winds off the northwest part of
the Yucatan Peninsula, between the high pressure to the north and
the standard overnight trough that forms over the southwest
Gulf. Seas are estimated to be 4 to 6 ft in the southwest Gulf.
Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 2 to 4 ft seas,
except 2 ft or less over the northeast Gulf. Aside from the dense
fog along the Texas and Louisiana coasts, no significant weather
is observed.

For the forecast, The low over Texas will lift northeast this
morning and the front will dissipate. The high pressure over the
northeast Gulf will shift southeast today to the Bahamas. A
trailing surface ridge will move into the southern Gulf through
Fri ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf by late
Fri. The front will stall across the northern Gulf Fri night, then
dissipate through Sat night. High pressure building north of
front over the Carolinas will support increase SE winds and
building seas across the western Gulf Sat into Sun, with strong SE
winds possible in the northwest Gulf by Sun night as low pressure
forms over northern Mexico. Winds and seas diminish across the
Gulf into Mon as the high shifts farther east and a weak cold
front moves into the coastal waters of Texas through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong
NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba. This is funneling across the
island, south of ridge parked north of the region. The
scatterometer pass also confirmed strong to near-gale force were
occurring over much off the south-central Caribbean, with the
strongest winds off Colombia that are expected to be pulsing to
minimal gale force currently as described in the Special Features
section above. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the northwest Caribbean, and
8 to 11 ft in the southeast Caribbean. Mostly moderate trade
winds persist over the eastern Caribbean, with 5 to 7 ft seas.
Regional radar mosaics show scattered showers moving west in the
trade wind flow through mainly the Windward Islands into the
eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the northwest Caribbean and
Windward Passage will diminish through tonight as the high
pressure weakens and moves into the Bahamas, although this pattern
will still support strong to near-gale force winds off Colombia,
briefly pulsing to gale force tonight and possibly Fri night and
Sat night. The high pressure weakens through Sat, but little
change is expected into early next week as stronger higher
pressure farther north.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is dissipating from near 32N38W to the southern
Bahamas. A somewhat stronger cold front is moving south between
Bermuda and northeast Florida. This front is associated with a
deep low pressure well north of the area. Strong to near gale
force winds are ongoing southeast of Bermuda currently, north of
28N between 60W and 65W. Seas in excess 8 ft are noted north of
28N between 35W and 65W. Elsewhere, ridging extends along 26N west
of the dying stationary front, with gentle to moderate winds and
5 to 7 ft seas in open waters. A few showers are still possible
along the dying front. A ridge extends along 28N east of the dying
front, into the eastern Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trade winds
are noted south of the ridge, with 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed N swell
and wind waves from the trade wind flow. Gentle to moderate winds
and mostly 5 to 7 ft seas evident farther north. Divergence aloft
on the southeast side of a sharp upper trough from the Canary
Islands to the coast of northeast Brazil is supporting a few
showers across the eastern Atlantic east of 30W.

For the forecast for waters west of 65W, the cold front moving
south through area between Bermuda and northeast Florida will
shift southeastward to along 27N by this evening, then move east
of the area tonight. Another front will move south into the waters
between Bermuda and northeast Florida Fri evening, reaching along
27N by Sat evening, along 23N east of the Turks and Caicos
Islands by Sun evening, then stalling along 20N off the coast of
the Dominican Republic by Mon evening. High pressure will build
over the area in the wake of this front.

$$
Christensen
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