[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Expect gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to
12N between 75W and 77W, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to
11 feet, from the early morning hours of today until the middle
of today. Expect the same conditions in the same areas in 24
hours or so. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast,
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N09W, to 03N13W, and to 03N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N17W, along 03N from 17W to 40W, to 06N51W and
06N57W near the coastal border of Guyana and Suriname. An upper
level trough is along 18N34W 06N43W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered
moderate to strong are to the south and southeast of the line
that extends from the coast of The Western Sahara near 28N, to
27N35W 10N35W 07N45W 08N55W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere,
from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slowly-moving cold front is moving away from the southern half
of the Texas Gulf coast. The front becomes stationary along 97W
from 24N to 25N. The stationary front curves northwestward,
into Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong are to the
northwest and north of the frontal boundary, in the inland
border areas of south Texas and NE Mexico.

A surface trough extends from the NW part of the Yucatan
Peninsula, southwestward, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

A surface ridge extends from 28N66W, beyond Florida along 28N,
to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 28N87W. The ridge
continues to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W.

A ridge will extend across the northern Gulf of Mexico through
Friday. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula overnight, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong
winds. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico
on Saturday, and become stationary into Saturday night. The
western part of the front will begin to move northward as a warm
front, from late Saturday night through Sunday, while the rest
of the front dissipates, as Atlantic Ocean high pressure builds
westward across the area through Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, across
Panama, beyond 08N83W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N southward from
70W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in the Caribbean
Sea.

High pressure to the north of the area is supporting fresh to
strong winds in the southeastern and south central Caribbean
Sea, with the winds pulsing to gale-force off the coast of
Colombia overnight. Fresh to strong northeast winds also are
expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through tonight. The wind
speeds and the sea heights will diminish from Thursday through
Saturday as the high pressure weakens. Strong winds will persist
off Colombia that may reach minimal gale-force during the
overnight hours, on Thursday night and on Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N67W to 30N73W, along 30N, and
beyond southern Georgia. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are from 29N northward from 60W
westward.

A surface ridge extends from 28N66W, beyond Florida along 28N,
into the Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front passes through 32N42W, to 29N50W, to 25N60W
24N70W, across the Bahamas to 22N76W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the NW
of the stationary front between 50W and 62W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and other possible rainshowers are
elsewhere, within 210 nm to the NW and N of the front, and
within 60 nm to the south and southeast of the stationary front,
and from 24N northward between 20W and 50W.

A surface ridge extends from 30N10W at the coast of Africa, to a
1024 mb high pressure center that is near 28N32W, to 27N45W to
23N55W.

The current 24N65W-to-Turks and Caicos stationary front will
dissipate overnight. A new cold front, currently reaching from
near Bermuda to northeast Florida, will continue to move
southward overnight. The main part of this front will move to
the northeast of the area on Thursday. A stationary segment will
be left to dissipate along 27N by Thursday evening. This front
will be followed by yet another cold front, that will move
southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late
on Friday. The front will reach from near 31N60W to 27N70W and
to West Palm Beach, Florida on Saturday night. The front will
begin to weaken, as it reaches the far southern waters late on
Sunday. High pressure will build in the wake of this front.

$$
mt/ec
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