[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area will
continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the
south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Nocturnal
pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse to gale
force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N11W to 04N20W. A segment of the ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
03N35W. A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ extending
from 07N35W to 00N37W. Another segment extends from 02N40W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 06N between 25W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the northern Gulf coast from the northern
coast of Texas to a 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the
Florida Panhandle near 30N84W. Buoy and platform data indicate
moderate to fresh SE winds over the northwest Gulf, with 5 to 7
ft seas, between the high pressure to the east, and low pressure
farther west over central Texas. Moderate E to SE winds persist
elsewhere across the Gulf with 2 to 4 ft, except for light and
variable winds over the northeast Gulf with seas 2 ft or less. No
significant convection is observed.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the north east Gulf will
shift eastward into the western Atlantic through mid week. The fresh
to strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf between the
high pressure and the lower pressure over Texas will diminish
today as the lower pressure shifts farther north. The flow of moist
southerly winds across cooler shelf waters may allow sea fog over
coastal waters later in the week. Farther south, a trough will
form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night
through Wed night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong
winds. A cold front will move over the northern Gulf Sat and
become stationary into Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central
Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details.

High pressure north of the area over the Florida Panhandle is
supporting fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across most of
the southeast and south-central Caribbean, with strong to near
gale force winds pulsing to minimal gales off the coast of
Colombia with 8 to 12 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to
6 ft seas are evident over the northwest Caribbean. Scattered
showers are observed on regional radar moving across the Windward
Islands and off the north coast of Venezuela. Isolated showers
are possible from eastern Cuba to near Swan Island along the
remnants of a stalled frontal boundary.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will weaken
and shift eastward. This will allow winds and seas to diminish
Thu through Sat, although strong winds will persist off Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 60W: A cold front extends from 31N62W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Earlier scatterometer satellite data and recent
buoy data indicate fresh E winds north of 30N west of the front to
75W, with 8 to 11 ft seas. Fresh to strong SW winds are north of
30N within 120 nm e of the front, between the front and a ridge
reaching from high pressure farther east near 28N38W to South
Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds are evident south of this
ridge from the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Gentle to moderate
winds are evident elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast, the cold front extending from 31N62W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands will stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba tonight
into Wed, then dissipate Wed night. Another cold front will move
southward into waters between northeastern Florida and Bermuda by
Wed night. The main portion of this front will lift to the
northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment
to dissipate along 27N by late Thu. This front will be followed by
yet another cold front that will move southward across the waters
between Bermuda and NE Florida late Fri, and reach from near
31N60W to near the NW Bahamas by late Sat.

Farther east, the aforementioned ridge is supporting gentle to
moderate to winds north of 25N and moderate to fresh trade winds
south of 25N. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over much of the Atlantic mostly
in N swell. A sharp upper trough reaches from near the Cabo Verde
Islands to the mouth of the Amazon River. Divergence aloft on the
southeast side of this trough along with trade wind convergence is
supporting scattered showers from 01N to 06N between 25W and 40W.

$$
Christensen
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