[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over
the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week.
Overnight land breezes will allow these winds to pulse to gale
force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia, mainly between
Cartagena and Barranquilla. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone to
18N13W. The ITCZ continues from 08N13W to 02N33W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N to 05N between 16W and 24W and between 28W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure over the
Northern Gulf near 29N90W extending through the Straits of
Florida. Dry conditions prevail over the northwestern portion
of the Gulf. To the east, a surface trough extends from Marco
Island to 23N85W. Scattered showers are noted near the boundary.
Scatterometer data indicated light to gentle anticyclonic winds
across most of the basin, while moderate winds are noted near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Buoy, ship and altimeter data also
indicated 2 to 4 ft.

High pressure over the northwest Gulf will shift eastward across
the northern Gulf through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return
flow will set up over the NW Gulf tonight into Tue between the
high pressure and lower pressure farther west over northeast
Mexico. These winds will diminish some by Wed. A trough will
form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night
through Wed night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central
Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over
the northwest Caribbean. Gale force winds and 8 to 10 ft seas
are noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
ongoing elsewhere across the southeast and south-central
Caribbean, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Scattered showers are present
from 14N to 19N between 79W-84W and in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure that will begin to build over
the western Atlantic today will bring increasing winds and
building seas over the southeast and south-central Caribbean,
with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia
mainly at night through Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba tonight through Wed
night, diminishing to mainly fresh speeds Thu and to gentle to
moderate speeds Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 50W: A weakening cold front extends from near 31N51W to
27N60W where it then continues as a stationary front to 28N68W.
Scattered showers are ongoing in broad swath from South Florida
across the northern Bahamas to 31N76W. These showers are ahead
of the cold front extending from a 1006 mb low near 37N67W to
29N72W to 26N80W. Moderate to fresh SE to E winds are evident
ahead of this boundary over the waters north of 25N and west of
63W with 5 to 7 ft seas. West of the front, fresh to strong
westerly flow is noted from the northern Bahamas to 31N between
73W to 81W.

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 30N58W, supporting
light to gentle breezes north of 25N between 27W and 54W. Seas
are quite large in this area however, reaching 7 to 11 ft in
lingering NW swell. Moderate trade winds persist south of 27N
with 5 to 7 ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near 31N72W to
the NW Bahamas and to Miami this afternoon, then become
stationary from near 26N65W to 22N71W and dissipating to eastern
Cuba by early Tue. The boundary will gradually dissipate through
early Thu. Another cold front will move southward into waters
between northeastern Florida and Bermuda Wed night. The main
portion of this front will lift to the northeast of the area
Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment to dissipate along
27N by late Thu. This will be followed by yet another front
moving southward into the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida
Fri.

Farther east, the subtropical ridge supports gentle to moderate
winds over the waters north of 22N, and moderate to fresh trades
farther south. A large area of NW to N swell with significant
wave heights reaching 8 to 13 ft are active north of 22N between
30W and 50W. Farther south, 6 to 8 ft seas prevail in a mix of N
swell and shorter period easterly wind waves.

$$
MTorres
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