[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over
the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week.
Overnight land breezes will allow these winds to pulse to gale
force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia, mainly between
Cartagena and Barranquilla. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of Sierra Leone and Liberia at 06N10W to 06N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the
boundaries between 18W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure over
central Texas through the Straits of Florida. Dry
conditions prevail over the northwestern portion of the basin,
while scattered showers are noted across the southeastern
portion. Scatterometer data depicted light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across most of the basin, while moderate
winds are noted near the Yucatan Peninsula. Buoy, ship and
altimeter data indicated seas of 3 ft or less across the
northwest half of the basin, and 3-5 ft across the southeast
half of the basin in lingering and decaying northwest-north
swell generated by a cold front passage a couple of days ago.

High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters over the
next several days. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will
set up over the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue between the high
pressure and lower pressure farther west over northeast Mexico.
These winds will diminish some by mid week. A trough will form
off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through
Wed night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central
Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details.

A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from
central Cuba to north-central Honduras. Upper level ridging and
deep layered dry air is allowing for drier conditions to prevail
in the eastern Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts moderate
to fresh N-NE winds west the front and south of 19N, with gentle
to
moderate N-NE winds west of the front and N of 19N. Moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail east of the front outside of the
south-central Caribbean as described in the Special Features
section above. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft across the basin, except
to
8 ft in the south-central Caribbean.

The stationary front will dissipate through Mon. High pressure
building in the wake of the front north of the region will bring
increasing winds and building seas over the central and northwest
Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the lee
of eastern Cuba starting Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N56W to 21N76W where it then
continues as a stationary front across western Caribbean.
Scattered showers are possible along and west of the front
affecting the Bahamas and adjacent waters. Surface ridge is
building behind the front, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered
near 28N66W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds
prevailing across the tropical Atlantic south of 22N while light
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Lingering large NW swell of
7-11 ft persists north of 26N and west of the front to around
75W, and north of 29N and east of the front to 60W. Seas of 3-6
ft cover the remainder of the waters outside of the Bahamas,
with seas mainly 3 ft or less inside the Bahamas. To the east,
surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1030 mb centered near 36N16W.

For the forecast, the front over the west Atlantic will
completely stall overnight while a reinforcing by cold front
moves into the area through Mon. The merging front will extend
from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Mon night, then reach from 24N65W to
eastern Cuba on Tue while gradually weakening through the middle
of the week. The next cold front will move southward into the
waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida Wed night, and
dissipate along 27N by late Thu. Another cold front is forecast
to reach the northern waters on Fri.

$$
ERA
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