[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
will support strong to near gale force winds over the south-
central Caribbean through mid week. Overnight land breezes will
allow these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the
coast of Colombia, mainly between Cartagena and Barranquilla.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 02N32W and
to thecoast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure centered over
the western Gulf near 25N93W through the Straits of Florida.
This  high pressure is following a cold front that moved
southeast of the basin yesterday. An ASCAT pass at1530 UTC
reveals light to gentle NW breezes over most of the Gulf,
turning easterly in the extreme southern gulf due to
anticyclonic flow around the ridge. Seas are likely 4 to 8 ft in
lingering NW swell over the eastern Gulf, although these seas
are subsiding quickly. Fairly dry conditions are present,
however broken to overcast clouds persist in the southern Gulf.
No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted.

High pressure is building over the western Gulf. This system
will  dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. Fresh
to strong southerly return flow will set up over the NW Gulf Mon
night into Tue between the high pressure and lower pressure
farther west over northeast Mexico. These winds will diminish
some by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central basin.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

A stationary front extends across the northwest Caribbean from
eastern Cuba to central Honduras. Recent scatterometer data
shows  moderate to fresh N-NE winds west the front and north of
the coast of Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted along the boundary. High pressure building north of the
area is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds with 5-7 ft
over the remainder of the basin, but with strong trade winds and
seas to 8 ft off Colombia. Additionally, upper level ridging and
deep layered dry air is allowing for drier conditions in the
eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through
Mon.  The high pressure building in the wake of the front north
of the region will bring increasing winds and building seas over
the south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force
off the coast of Colombia mainly at night through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from west of Bermuda near 32N61W to 22N75W
near the Turks and Caicos Islands, where it transitions to a
stationary front and extends into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
showers are observed within 130 nm ahead of the front north of
29N.  The main upper dynamics supporting the front are lifting
out to the north, allowing sustained winds and gusts to diminish
over the waters north of25N. Seas are still very high, with the
buoy 41048 near 32N69W reporting 17 ft significant wave heights.
This is due to the shorter period W to NW swell. Seas in excess
of 8 ft cover most of the area north of 26N between 65W and 75W.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in open waters with gentle to
moderate winds.

For the forecast, the cold front extending from 31N61W to
Eastern  Cuba will stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba late today,
then will dissipate Mon. Another cold front will move southeast
off the NE Florida coast tonight, reach from Bermuda to central
Cuba by late Mon, then stall and dissipate from 23N65W to
eastern Cuba through mid week. Another cold front will move
southward into the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida Wed
night, and become stationary along 25N into the central Bahamas
by late Thu.

Farther east, a cold front reaches from 32N44W to 24N55W. Ridging
dominates the eastern Atlantic north of 20N, supporting fresh
trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in mainly NE swell south of 20N.

Farther east, a cold front extends from the northwest Azores to
near 30N41W, denting a ridge that prevails north of 20N. The
ridge is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh trade
winds  with locally strong winds off the west coast of Africa
between 18N-24N. Seas range from 8-10 ft with mixed N and NE
swell.

$$

Mora
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