[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W,
to 05N18W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N18W to 03N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is found within 210nm south of the
monsoon trough between 11W and 18W. Scattered showers are located
along and north of the ITCZ from 04N to 08N between 22W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front persists from the Yucatan Channel through the
Straits of Florida and into the western Atlantic. The latest NWS
Doppler Radar data shows a few isolated showers along the frontal
boundary. A 1020 mb high is centered near 24N91W. Gentle
anticyclonic flow driven by this high dominates the Gulf of
Mexico.

The 1020 mb high will weaken and drift E tonight. The stationary
front will dissipate later today. A cold front will move into the
NW Gulf early Fri, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to 22N95W
to southern Mexico south of Veracruz Fri evening. Reinforcing
cold air will increase winds behind the front across the northern
Gulf Fri night and Sat while the front weakens and sinks SE of
the basin. High pressure will prevail over the Gulf Sun and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Yucatan Channel northeast to
the Florida Straits. The latest ASCAT data shows fresh northeast
winds north of the front over the Yucatan Channel. The
Colombian/Panamanian low is located just off the coast of
Colombia near 10N76W. The latest ASCAT data shows an area of
strong trades from the Colombian coast to 14N between 72W and
77W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and isolated showers
span the rest of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.

The stationary front from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan
Channel will dissipate later today. Trade winds across the
central Caribbean will gradually diminish through Fri as high
pressure north of the region shifts eastward. A weak cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean Fri night, then stall and dissipate
from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front entered the western Atlantic this morning and
currently extends from 28N78W to at 1010mb low at 35N72W. Fresh
to strong W to NW winds follow behind the front. A stationary
front extends from 31N64W through the Bahamas to the Straits of
Florida. Scattered showers are near the front from 27N to 32N
between 60W and 70W. A central Atlantic cold front extends from
a low north of the area to 32N50W to 31N52W. Scattered moderate
convection and fresh to strong SW winds are located north of 30N
between 35W and 47W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow extends
over the eastern Atlantic between 20N and 30N.

The weakening stationary front from 31N64W across the northern
Bahamas to the Florida Straits will gradually merge tonight with
the cold front off northern Florida. Expect increasing SW winds
ahead of the new front, north of the Bahamas. Strong W winds will
follow the front north of the NW Bahamas late Sat. The front will
reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat
morning, from 31N61W to 27N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then
stall and dissipate through Mon.

$$
Mahoney/Hagen
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