[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132306
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W to 06N18W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N34W to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 23W to 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front lingers across the southern Gulf along the
western Cuban coast and the Yucatan Passage. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the Yucatan Passage along with showers off
the south-central Florida coast. In the western and central Gulf,
ridging from high pressure over Mexico extends across this area
with quiescent weather. Strong N winds are noted in the
southwest Bay of Campeche with fresh N winds in the central and
eastern portion of the region. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail
in the northern Gulf. Seas range 2 to 6 ft with upwards of 8 ft
in the Bay of Campeche.

A surface trough across the SW Gulf will maintain strong NW
winds near the coast of Mexico this evening before weakening
considerably tonight. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf
early Fri and extend from the Florida Big Bend panhandle to
22N95W to southern Mexico south of Veracruz Fri evening.
Reinforcing cold air will increase winds behind the front in the
northern Gulf Fri night and Sat as the front weakens and sinks SE
of the basin. High pressure will remain centered over the Gulf
Sun and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface pressure gradient between high pressure north of the
area and the comparatively lower surface pressure in Colombia
and Panama is supporting moderate to fresh winds in the south-
central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Isolated convection
is noted along the coast of Panama. Seas range 6 to 8 ft with
upwards of 10 ft near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure centered SE of Bermuda will maintain fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean through early Thu,
before winds and seas gradually diminish Thu afternoon through
Fri as high pressure shifts eastward. These conditions are
expected to persist through the weekend. A weakening cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean Fri night, then stall and dissipate
from E Cuba to Gulf of Honduras Sun afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front continues to press eastward
as it stretches from 31N67W to the northern Bahamas near 26N78W.
The front stalls from 26N78W across the Straits of Florida to
the northwestern Cuban coast. Showers are noted off the Florida
coast, N of 27N and west of 76W. Scattered showers are also noted
within 50 nm of the front. Moderate northerly winds are behind
the front.

In the central Atlantic, a dying stationary front stretches from
31N41W to 22N66W. Showers are north of this boundary, N of 26N
between 47W to 60W. Moderate winds prevail across this region of
the Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, ridging is noted across
the area anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure near 36N16W. Seas
range 4 to 9 ft across the western and central Atlantic.

The weak cold front will stall and dissipate tonight. A
secondary cold front will move into the N Florida waters late
Fri. SW winds will increase to strong north of the Bahamas Fri
night ahead of this front and shift eastward ahead of it. The
front will reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to W Cuba Sat
morning and from 27N65W to E Cuba Sun morning before stalling
and dissipating.

$$
AReinhart
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