[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111758
TWDAT

AXNT20 KNHC 111153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 15Z, low pressure of 1016 mb
is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W,
producing gale force winds over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
Recent ASCAT data depicts gale force winds from 23N to 25N
along 96W. As the cold front moves south, the gale will remain
offshore near Veracruz, then diminish to strong winds tonight.
Seas with this gale are currently 9-14ft, diminishing to 9-12ft
tonight. The low will continue to weaken as it tracks
northeastward across the NE Gulf of Mexico today and tonight.
Strong high pressure is anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near
the Texas panhandle. The associated ridging extends
south-southeastward toward the western Gulf waters.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low
will support gale force winds overnight tonight into Tuesday
morning from 12/0600 UTC to 12/1500 UTC and repeat again Tue
night into early Wed morning at about the same times. Wave
heights are forecast to build to 11-13 ft in the gale force wind
area. The Atlantic high pressure will weaken as it shifts
eastward across the central Atlantic, inhibiting gales later
in the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on both gale warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the coast
of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues to 05N25W, where
scatterometer data indicates it transitions to the ITCZ.
The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 01N39W and to the coast of
Brazil at 02N50W. Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon
trough between 10W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,
for offshore near Veracruz. Please see the Special Features
section above for details.

As of 15Z, a cold front extends from the 1016 mb low pressure
mentioned in Special Features that is centered 28N90W
south-southwest to 18N94W near the coast of eastern Veracruz.
A stationary front extends from the low east-northeastward to
near 30N86W. Latest satellite imagery and NWS Doppler radar
imagery show scattered showers over the northeastern Gulf north
of 27N between 83W-86W tracking inland over the Florida
panhandle. Scattered showers are along the length of the cold front.

Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are elsewhere west
of the front outside the gale force wind area described above.
Strong north to northeast winds are noted north of the low and
west of 90W, and also north of 27N between 87W and 90W as
indicated by the latest ASCAT data pass. These winds follow
the progress of the low as it tracks inland. Strong southerly
winds are east of the front to near 87W, and also north of 26N
along with wave heights of 7-10 ft.

The 1016 mb low pressure off southeast Louisiana will move
into the Florida Panhandle tonight. A trailing cold front will
slowly move into the far southeast Gulf through mid week, and
will dissipate over the Straits of Florida through Thu. Meanwhile,
winds to gale force will follow the front today along the coast
of Mexico with strongest winds off Veracruz. A coastal trough
will maintain strong NW winds along this coast Tue and Wed, while high
pressure building across the northern Gulf will allow winds and
seas to diminish elsewhere. Looking ahead, another front will
move into the northern Gulf Fri, with fresh winds and building seas
following the front as moves over the eastern Gulf through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
see the Special Features section for more information.

This mornings ASCAT data passes highlight fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over a good portion of the the
south-central Caribbean. Fresh winds prevail across the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. Strong winds are presently occurring near the
coast of Colombia, increasing to gale force tonight as mentioned
in the Special Features. Clusters of scattered moderate showers
and thunderstorms supported by an upper-level disturbance are noted
over the western Caribbean from 10N to 15N and 17N to 20N west
of 78W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the Yucatan Channel.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean
through mid week, with pulses to gale force off Colombia during
the overnight and early morning hours. These winds and seas will
diminish Thu through Sat as the high pressure weakens and shifts
east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N48W to 23N66W, where it
becomes stationary to just north of the eastern tip of Cuba
near 20N74W. Scattered showers along and east of the cold front
mainly north of 27N.

The latest ASCAT data passes showed generally fresh to strong
winds over the western Atlantic from 05N to 25N west of 54W.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the western Atlantic.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the central Atlantic
north of the area associated with the cold front. The remainder of the
Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb
high pressure center located south of the Azores near 32N28W.

A stationary front extending from near 23N65W to the
Windward passage will weaken and dissipate through tonight. A
weak cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by Tue
morning, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
early Wed. The front will stall and start to dissipate Thu from
31N65W to the southern Bahamas, ahead of a reinforcing front
moving across the waters north of 27N that will move east of the
area through Fri. Winds and seas will increase north of the
Bahamas late Fri ahead of another cold front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast Sat. The central Atlantic will
remain under the influence of a cold front north of the area.

$$
ERA/Mahoney
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net