[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb low pressure is centered
over the northwest Gulf of Mexico near 27.5N94W and is currently
producing gale force winds. NOAA buoy 42019 near 27.9N 95.3W
recorded sustained winds as high as 39 kt with gusts to 49 kt
around 11/0100 UTC, with significant wave heights of 14 ft
reported. A recent ASCAT pass from 11/0148 UTC showed gale force
N winds up to 40 kt on the west side of the low, from 27N-29N
between 94W-96W. A cold front extends from the low pressure to
24N94.5W to south of Tampico Mexico near 22N98W. Gale force winds
to 35 kt are also occurring elsewhere to the NW of this cold
front. The low will weaken as it tracks ENE across the N Gulf
into the Florida Big Bend area by Tue. As winds over the NW Gulf
diminish below gale force later this morning, gale force N winds
will continue behind the trailing cold front offshore of Tampico.
Gales will then reach waters offshore Veracruz Mexico by midday
today. The gales near Veracruz will continue through this evening
before diminishing during the predawn hours on Tue. Seas of 10-14
ft are expected with this gale event.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low will
support strong to minimal gale force winds within about 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia now from 11/0600 UTC through 1200 UTC this
morning, and again overnight tonight into Tue morning from
12/0600 UTC to 12/1500 UTC. Seas are forecast to build to 11-13
ft in the gale force wind area. The high pressure will weaken on
Tue as it shifts eastward across the central Atlantic, allowing
for these winds to diminish below gale force. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details on both gale warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the coast of
Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues to 04N21W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N21W to the coast of Brazil at 00N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N-06N between 15W-31W.
Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm either side of the
ITCZ west of 48W along the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gale force winds are occurring over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Please see the Special Features section above for details.

A cold front extends from the aforementioned 1013 mb low pressure
near 27.5N94W to 24N94.5W to south of Tampico Mexico near 22N98W.
A stationary front extends ENE from the low to 29N89W. Scattered
moderate rain showers are occurring between the low and southern
Louisiana. A line of moderate showers is also likely along the
trailing cold front extending to the SW Gulf. The latest ASCAT
pass shows 35-40 kt winds west of the low, with 30-35 kt gale
force winds elsewhere over the NW Gulf west of the cold front and
north of the stationary front. Strong S winds precede the cold
front. Fresh SE winds cover most of the central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate E winds are seen over the far eastern Gulf, to the west
of Florida.

The front will exit the southeastern Gulf Tue night and be over
the Straits of Florida Wed. High pressure will build over the NW
Gulf in the wake of the front, allowing for winds to diminish and
seas to subside across much of the basin, with the exception of
the SW Gulf. A trough will persist over the far SW Gulf Tue and
Wed. The pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge across
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico will
support fresh to strong NW to N winds S of 26N and W of 96W on
Tue. These conditions will persist on Wed, with seas building to
8-9 ft. On Wed, winds of 25-30 kt are expected near the Veracruz
area. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the
northern Gulf Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
see the Special Features section for more information.

The most recent satellite-derived wind data provided observations
of strong winds over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh winds
prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Near gale to
minimal gale force winds are expected early this morning near
the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate showers are noted
across much of the western Caribbean, south of 20N and west of
75W.

Fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean will
continue through late Wed night, then diminish to mainly fresh
speeds through Fri. Northeast to east trades will reach gale
force along and near the coast of Colombia again Mon night into
early Tue. A weakening cold front is expected to move into the NW
Caribbean Wed, then become stationary from west-central Cuba to
the NW Caribbean and dissipate by early Thu as high pressure
builds from the Gulf of Mexico southeastward across the NW
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N51.5W to 26N60W to 23N68W where it
becomes stationary to eastern Cuba near 20N74.5W. Isolated to
scattered showers are east of the front N of 27N. Gentle to
moderate wind speeds prevail across the western Atlantic, south
of 31N and west of 60W. The stationary front will dissipate later
this morning. Another cold front is expected to move off the
Florida coast Wed, then weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to
western Cuba by late Thu. Winds and seas will increase Fri off
northeast Florida ahead of another front expected to move off the
coast by Fri night.

The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge,
anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure located S of the Azores near
32N28W. Strong trade winds prevail south of the high from 07N-24N
between 40W and the west coast of Africa. Near gale NE winds are
east of the Cape Verde Islands from 13N-22N between 17W-23W.
These winds will persist through today.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net