[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force NE to E winds will continue to
pulse within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia for the next
several nights, as the pressure gradient remains enhanced between
the Colombian/Panamanian low and high pressure over the western
Atlantic. Seas are forecast to reach 12-16 ft during the periods
of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 02N34W to
0N50W. No significant convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extending across the northern Gulf from a 1023 mb
high pressure over the northeast Gulf continue to support gentle
to moderate return flow. Clear skies dominates the basin under
middle to upper level dry air subsidence, except over the far NW
Gulf where dense fog have been reported, including the Texas
coastal waters.

Weak surface ridging will persist through Fri, then lift northward.
Gentle to moderate SE winds should prevail across most of the
Gulf Sat through Mon. A weak cold front may reach W Gulf on Tue.
Sea fog is possible tonight over NW Gulf, persisting through early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair weather conditions prevail this evening under the influence
of a middle to upper level high covering the central and western
Caribbean. Only passing showers has been reported near the Cayman
Islands. The base of a middle to upper level trough extends to the
far eastern Caribbean and along with shallow moisture support
passing showers across most of the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise,
persistent high pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds over the eastern, central and portions of the
SW Caribbean, reaching near gale force along the coast of
Colombia.

The Bermuda High north of the region will support fresh to strong
E trades across central and E Caribbean through at least Tue
night, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia
mainly during overnight and early morning hours. Fresh to strong
NE winds in the Windward Passage will persist through Mon. Fresh
to strong E trades should develop in the Gulf of Honduras nightly
beginning Sat night through Mon night. N swell with E wind waves
are producing combined seas of up to 10 ft in the tropical
Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands. These conditions
will prevail through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high pressure covers most of the SW N Atlc waters
supporting light to gentle variable winds, except S of 22N where
fresh to locally strong trade winds prevail, including between the
Hispaniola and the Turk and Caicos Islands.

Over the central Atlc, a cold front extending from 31N41W to
28N51W continues to weaken. Otherwise, stronger high pressure of
1035 mb anchored near the Canary Islands supports a broad area of
NE to E fresh to strong winds. These winds extends to 10N and E of
40W, inluding the Cape Verde Islands.

A weak cold front will move from west to east across the waters
north of 28N tonight and Fri. As the Bermuda High builds north of
the area behind the front, fresh to strong E winds will be
supported across the waters south of 22N Fri night through Mon
night. N swell combined with E wind waves in this area will
produce combined seas up to 10 ft late Sat through Mon north of
Haiti and Puerto Rico.

$$
Ramos
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