[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251652
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force NE to E winds will continue to
pulse within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia for the next
several nights, as the pressure gradient remains enhanced between
the Colombian/Panamanian low and high pressure over the western
Atlantic. Seas are forecast to reach 12-16 ft during the periods
of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 04N30W to
01N48W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-07N between
05W-15W and from 00N-04N between 46W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extends across the northern Gulf from a 1022 mb high
pressure over the northeast Gulf near 28N84W. Gentle winds
prevail across most of the Gulf, with moderate E-SE winds over
the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SSE winds were
recently reported from buoy observations over portions of the
west-central Gulf, well offshore the coast of south Texas. Low
stratus and dense fog are seen offshore Texas between Galveston
and South Padre Island. Most of the marine fog that was occurring
early this morning in the nearshore waters from Louisiana to the
western Florida Panhandle has dissipated, but some isolated areas
of dense fog remain. No significant precipitation is noted in the
Gulf.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging building across the N Gulf
will persist through Fri, then lift northward. Gentle to moderate
SE winds should prevail across most of the Gulf Sat through Mon.
Sea fog is possible today over the NW Gulf Coast, spreading also
to the north-central Gulf Coast tonight. The risk of dense fog
will persist over the coastal waters from Texas to Alabama into
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the Caribbean Sea,
supporting subsidence and dry conditions across the basin. Some
clouds over the SE Caribbean and also near Jamaica may contain
isolated showers. At the surface, a persistent ridge north of the
area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the eastern
Caribbean, while strong winds cover the central Caribbean, as
seen in the latest ASCAT data pass from Thursday morning. The
ASCAT data also show near gale to locally gale force winds
within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia from 10.5N-13N between
73W-77W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are evident in the Windward
Passage. Moderate NE winds are observed over the northwest
Caribbean. Seas are 10 to 14 ft off Colombia, 7 to 10 ft
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft
over the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, The Bermuda High north of the region will
support fresh to strong E trades across central and E Caribbean
through at least Mon night, with winds pulsing to gale force off
the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early morning
hours. Fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage will
persist through Mon. Fresh to strong E trades should develop in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly beginning Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high pressure near 28N73W is leading to gentle winds
over most of the area north of 24N and west of 40W. An exception
is moderate NW winds seen to the west of a surface trough that
extends from Ft. Lauderdale Florida to 32N78W. Isolated showers
are near the surface trough. Fresh trades are south of 22N near
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in open
waters west of 60W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N43W to 29N49W to
28N56W with isolated showers and moderate wind speeds. In the far
NE Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N10W through the Canary
Islands to 27N20W. A dissipating stationary front is from 27N20W
to 24N29W. Strong to near gale force NE winds cover this area of
the NE Atlantic from 20N-30N, east of 27W. Fresh to strong trade
winds cover the tropical Atlantic from 06N-24W between 35W-60W.
Northerly swell prevails east of 60W, with seas reaching 8 to 12
ft in most areas, and as high as 15 ft over the eastern Atlantic,
where an altimeter pass from 25/0554 UTC showed seas of 13-15 ft
from 19N-31N between 29W-34W.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move from west to east
across the western Atlantic north of 28N tonight and Fri. As the
Bermuda High builds north of the area behind the front, fresh to
strong E winds will be supported across the waters south of 22N
and west of 65W late Fri through late Mon. N swell combined with
E wind waves in this area will produce combined seas up to 10 ft
late Sat through Mon north of Haiti and Puerto Rico. In the
tropical N Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands, N swell
with E wind waves will continue to produce combined seas of up to
10 ft through Mon.

$$
Hagen
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