[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active gale-force wind event is happening, right now, in the
coastal waters of Colombia.
Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10
feet to 12 feet, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 78W, in the
coastal waters of Colombia. The gale-force wind conditions will
be lasting for the next 48 hours or so. Please, read the latest
NWS high seas forecast from the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from
03N20W, to 02N26W, and to 01N32W. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate to locally strong covers the areas that are from 08N
southward from 60W eastward. Rainshowers are possible,
elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 22N88W off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, across the NW corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula, beyond the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 28N84W, to 27N92W, 23N95W, to the coast of Mexico near
20N97W.

Weak surface ridging, building across the northern Gulf of
Mexico, will persist through Friday, then move northward. Gentle
to moderate SE winds should prevail across most of the Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday and Sunday. Sea fog is possible in the NW
Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday, and persisting into early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows an anticyclonic circulation
center that is just off the coast of northern Colombia near
11N76W. This feature is spreading upper level anticyclonic wind
flow, everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 500
mb, shows cyclonic wind flow from 68W eastward, with an
east-to-west oriented trough. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the
rest of the area, with a NW-to-SE oriented ridge. The GFS model
for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow, with a trough that runs
from northern Colombia to the Windward Channel and SE Cuba.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated
moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
wind flow.

A surface trough is along 12N73W in northern Colombia, beyond
07N78W at the coast of Colombia, about 30 nm to the south of the
Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is about 45 nm to
the SE of the surface trough, near 06N77W, at the coast of
Colombia. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible
rainshowers, are from 13N southward from 73W westward, in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Expect NE-to-E winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, elsewhere, from 11N to 17N
between 67W and 80W.

The Bermuda High to the north of the region will support fresh
to strong E trade winds in the central and eastern sections of
the Caribbean Sea, through at least Monday night, with winds
pulsing to gale-force off the coast of Colombia mainly during
the overnight and early morning
hours. Strong NE winds should develop in the Windward Passage
tonight, persisting through Monday. Fresh to strong E trade
winds should develop in the Gulf of Honduras nightly, beginning
on Saturday night. N swell, with E wind waves, is producing
combined seas to 10 feet in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to the
east of the Windward Islands. These conditions will prevail
through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N49W to 30N52W, 28N60W 26N70W, to
26N75W. A surface trough continues from 26N75W, to the coast of
SE Florida between Delray Beach and Boynton Beach.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from the surface trough
to 30N from 77W westward.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to
locally strong are from 25N northward between 45W and 70W. Other
rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from the cold front
and surface trough, northward.

A second cold front, in the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean,
passes through 32N14W, the Canary Islands, to 27N20W and 25N29W.
A shear line continues from 25N29W, to 24N38W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are from 20N northward from 40W eastward.

A 1036 mb high pressure center is near 38N24W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the cold
front/shear line, northward.

The current cold front, extending from 27N65W to the northern
Bahamas, is starting to stall, and it will dissipate through
early Thursday morning. Another weak cold front will move from
west to east, across the waters to the north of 28N, on Thursday
and Friday. High pressure, building to the north of the area
behind the second front, will support fresh to strong E winds
across the waters that are to the south of 22N, from late Friday
through at least Monday night. N swell, combined with E wind
waves in the area, will produce combined seas of about 8-9 ft on
Sunday and Monday.

$$
mt/ec
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