[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale force NE to E winds will continue to
pulse at nighttime and in the early morning for the next several
nights within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, as high
pressure north of the Caribbean Sea combines with the
Colombian/Panamanian low. Seas are forecast to be 11-14 ft during
the periods of strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N20W to 0.5N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is observed from 01S-06N between 05W-14W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N-05N between
16W-33W, and from 08S-01S between 25W-43W. Isolated moderate
convection is noted from 01N-04N between 33W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Marco Island, Florida to the
eastern Gulf near 25N83W. The portion of the stationary front
from 25N83W to 26N88W has dissipated. 1022 mb high pressure is
centered north of the front over the northeast Gulf, near 29N85W.
The high pressure is limiting winds over the northeast Gulf to 5
to 10 kt and seas to 2 ft or less. These gentle winds have been
confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass, and prevail east of 92W north
of 22N. Recent buoy and platform data are showing moderate to
fresh southerly flow and 3 to 5 ft seas over the northwest Gulf,
between the high pressure and 1009 mb low pressure over Oklahoma.
Dense fog is observed along central and southern portions of the
coast of Texas. No significant showers or tstorms are observed.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate later
today. Weak surface ridging building across the N Gulf in the
wake the front will persist through Fri. Gentle to moderate SE
winds should prevail across most of the Gulf Sat and Sun. Sea fog
is likely to increase in coverage and density tonight over NW
Gulf, and could persist through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air is present across the basin. A few passing
showers are possible east of Honduras and northern Nicaragua. A
recent ASCAT pass from late this morning shows strong trades over
the central Caribbean south of 16N between 68W-78W, with near
gale force winds within 120 nm of the north coast of Colombia.
Fresh winds are elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean.
Moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean. An altimeter pass from
early Wed morning around 24/0915 UTC shows seas of 2-4 ft in the
NW Caribbean. Seas are likely 5-7 ft in the eastern and 7-10 ft
in the central portion of the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the region will
support fresh to strong E trades across the central and E
Caribbean through at least Sun night, with winds pulsing to gale
force off the coast of Colombia mainly during overnight and early
morning hours. Strong NE winds should develop in the Windward
Passage tonight, persisting through at least Sun night. Fresh to
strong E trades should develop in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night
and again Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N57W to 28N66W to 26.5N73W. The
front continues as a stationary front from 26.5N73W to the
northwest Bahamas to near Ft. Lauderdale Florida. Scattered
showers are occurring within 30 nm of the stationary front from
the NW Bahamas to SE Florida. Scattered moderate convection is
along and within 60 nm ahead of the cold front from 28N-32N
between 55W-63W. A recent ASCAT pass from Wed morning shows fresh
winds on both sides of the cold front, mainly north of 28N and
east of 66W. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely occurring within this
area of fresh winds. A 1022 mb high pressure over the W Atlantic
near 33N71W is creating mostly gentle winds north of 24N and west
of 70W, except for locally moderate near the stationary front.
Seas of 5 to 7 ft are present over the open waters of the western
Atlantic between the Bahamas and 65W.

Farther east, a 1035 mb high pressure is centered near 34N31W. A
cold front extends from the Madeira Islands to 29N20W to 24N34W.
A shear line continues from 24N34W to 22N45W to 23N52W. Isolated
showers are possible near the front and shear line. The ASCAT
pass shows strong NE winds within 120 nm north of the cold front
and shear line, mainly east of 40W. Moderate winds of a similar
direction are within 60 nm south of the cold front and shear
line. South of that, fresh to strong trade winds prevail across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean. N swell with E wind waves are
producing combined seas of up to 10 ft in the Tropical N Atlantic
waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles. These conditions will
prevail through at least Sun night. Farther north, a 24/0726 UTC
altimeter pass showed seas of 8-9 feet from 20N-30N between
48W-54W. Seas are likely 10-14 ft north of 24N between 20W-40W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the portion of the frontal boundary
west of 65W should dissipate tonight. A new, weak cold front will
move from west to east across the waters north of 28N Thu and
Fri. High pressure building north of the area behind the second
front will support fresh to strong E winds across the waters
south of 22N late Fri through at least Sun night.

$$
Hagen
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