[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240943
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulses of
gale-force northeast to east winds within about 90 nm of the coast
of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours tonight
through the latter part of the week. Seas are forecast to build to
10-12 ft during the period of strongest winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09.5N13W to 04N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N23W to 02S36W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N-05N between 13W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Marco Island, Florida to the
central Gulf near 26N90W. 1022 mb high pressure is centered north
of the front over the northeast Gulf, near 28N85W. The high
pressure is limiting winds over the northeast Gulf to 5 to 10 kt
and seas to 2 ft or less. Recent buoy and platform data is showing
moderate to fresh southerly flow and 3 to 5 ft seas over the
northwest Gulf, between the high pressure and lower pressure over
the southern Plains. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4
ft seas are noted elsewhere. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed, and no major fog formation is evident.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate later
today. Weak surface ridging building across the northern Gulf in
the wake the front will persist through the end of the week, and
the next frontal boundary will likely stall along the northern
Gulf coast Thu and Thu night. This pattern will allow moist
southerly flow over cooler waters in the northwest Gulf, and sea
fog is possible over the northwest Gulf from at least late Thu
through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent buoy observations indicated gentle to moderate NE winds and
2 to 5 ft seas across the northwest Caribbean. High pressure north
of the area over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds elsewhere across the Caribbean, as confirmed by
a scatterometer satellite pass from 02 UTC, along with near-gale
to gale force winds pulsing off mountainous terrain of Colombia.
Seas are reaching 8 to 12 ft between Colombia and Jamaica, and 6
to 9 ft elsewhere.

A fairly dry pattern persists across the Caribbean, limiting
shower activity to a few clusters of cells in the trade wind flow
across the southern Caribbean, through the Windward Islands, the
ABC Islands and off Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the region will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean through Sun night, with winds
pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia mainly during
overnight and early morning hours. Strong NE winds are possible in
the Windward Passage tonight and again starting Fri night and
persisting through Sun. Fresh to strong trade winds will develop
in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N61W through the northern Bahamas to
near Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A few showers are likely ongoing
near the front north of 25N. Recent buoy and earlier scatterometer
data indicated fresh to strong winds on either side of the front north
of 29N, between 55W and 65W, with seas estimated to be 7 to 10 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere west of 55W, with 5
to 7 ft seas in open waters.

Farther east, another cold front reaching from near Madeira to
24N35W, then is a shear line to 22N50W. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds are within 180 nm north of the front between 25W and 45W.
Seas are 8 to 12 ft in NW to N swell north of the front and east
of 55W. Strong high pressure north of the front is supporting
fresh to strong NE to E trade winds farther south into the deep
tropics, with 8 to 10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the western portion of the cold
front extending from 32N61W to Fort Lauderdale, Florida will stall
from 28N65W to the northern Bahamas later today, then dissipate
overnight. Another front will move from west to east across the
waters north of 28N Thu and Fri. High pressure building north of
the area behind the second front will support fresh to strong E
winds across the waters south of 22N late Fri through Sun.

$$
Christensen
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